The study of the analysis of the increase factor and demand estimation in old-people mobility

老年人流动增加因素分析及需求估算研究

• 批准号: 10650535
• 负责人: MIHOSHI Akihiro
• 金额: $ 1.73万
• 依托单位: Kinki Univ
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1998 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10650535/
• 关键词: Traffic of elderly people and disabled person; Traffic demand analysis; Base maintenance of welfare

The purpose of this study is the attribution analysis of the old-people mobility using the person trip survey, creation of a total model and the attribution analysis of old-people nobility after conducting original investigation.Then, the acquired knowledge is shown below :First, it is by analysis of person trip survey data.1.An increase of old people's rate of employment and rate of going out may increase old-people trip.2.Old people's automobile trip does not decrease in 2025 as compared with population reduction.3.If estimation of trip by means of transportation is seen, trip of railroad use will decrease most.4.If old people's rate of employment is changed and is estimated, reduction of railroad trip can be suppressed.Next, it is at an original questionnaire.1. Going-out activity had fallen old people's going-out activity with older and older by the age group.2. The person's with a job activity is which the relation between the existence of working, and going-out activity higher than an unemployed person.3. It is thought that physical difficulty is a reason and is connected with the going-out fall as difficult.4. A community bus as the alternative means of transportation of public means of transportation, such as a taxi, a bus, and a railroad.5. It is thought that the thing with a strong maintenance request has much a community bus and potential demand as for welfare transfer service.

本研究的目的是在进行原始调查后，利用个人出行调查，建立总体模型，对老年人流动性进行归因分析，并对老年人贵族进行归因分析，获得的知识如下：第一、1.老年人就业率和外出率的增加会增加老年人的收入，2.2025年老年人的汽车出行与人口减少相比不会减少。4.若改变老年人的就业率并加以估计，则可抑制铁路出行的减少。老年人的外出活动随年龄的增长而下降.有工作活动者的存在与外出活动之间的关系高于失业者。认为身体困难是一个原因，并与外出跌倒有关.社区公交车作为出租车、公交车、铁路等公共交通工具的替代交通工具。认为维修性要求强的对象对社区公交车和福利性换乘服务有较大的潜在需求。

项目成果

Akihiro MIHOSHI,Hiroshi KITAGAWA: "THE PREDICTION OF TRIP PRODUCTION AND ESTIMATE OF UNMET DEMANDS IN THE MOST AGING SOCIETY,2025 IN JAPAN" Conference Proceedings of 8^<th> International Conference of Transport and Mobility for Elderly and Disabled People

Akihiro Mihoshi、Hiroshi Kitagawa：“2025 年日本最老龄化社会中旅行生产的预测和未满足需求的估计”第八届老年人和残疾人交通与出行国际会议论文集

北川博巳,三星昭宏: "高齢者モビリティ潜在化の属性要因と交通需要増加に関する考察" 土木計画学研究・論文集. 15. 747-754 (1998)

北川宏美、三星昭宏：“老年人潜在流动属性因素与交通需求增加的思考”土木工程规划研究与论文，15. 747-754（1998）。

岡本英晃: "高齢者の潜在交通需要の要因把握に関する研究"土木学会 第55回 年次学術講演会講演概要集. (2000)

冈本秀明：《了解老年人潜在交通需求背后的因素的研究》日本土木工程学会第55届年会学术会议摘要（2000年）。

大塚祐司: "大阪府におけるスペシャルトランスポートサービスの運行実態に関する研究"土木学会 第55回 年次学術講演会講演概要集. (2000)

大冢雄二：《大阪府特殊交通服务实际运行状况研究》日本土木学会第55届学术年会纪要（2000年）。

仲,三星,北川: "高齢者の潜在交通に及ぼす要因の研究"土木学会第54回年次学術講演会講演概要集. 第4部. 298-299 (1999)

Naka, Mitsuboshi, Kitakawa：“影响老年人潜在交通的因素研究”日本土木工程师学会第 54 届年度学术会议摘要第 4 部分。298-299 (1999)。