Simulation of a software development project for supporting project management

经过两年多的研究，建立了能够对各种软件开发项目进行虚拟体验的仿真系统，明确了仿真对项目管理的支持是可能的。对构成工作进度模型的三个基本模型（工作量模型、生产率模型、知识模型）进行了评价，并在此基础上设计了仿真系统并安装在Windows上。Java用于安装系统。通过WWW访问和执行系统是可能的。此外，系统还提供了从项目的特征（生产力、技术获取所需的天数等）中计算基本模型参数的功能。因此，没有基本模型知识的项目管理员现在也可以相对容易地使用系统。我将具有典型特征的虚拟项目（virtual project）设置为一个软件开发项目，并对每六位熟练的管理员进行了主观评估和使用系统的评估。因此，在一个发展周期的估计中，使用主观估计值和主观系统的事物，它估计的值之间没有差异，在5%的显著水平上得到证实。此外，通过在认知地图上表达工作实施所需的知识结构，开发人员所拥有的知识的差异被详细地表达出来，这表明它可以在进展中得到反映。

As a result of the research over for two years, the simulation system, which can carry out false experience of various software development projects, was built, and it clarified that the project management support by the simulation was possible. Three basic models (the amount model of work, a productivity model, knowledge model), which constitute the work progress model, which is to the foundations of a simulation especially, were evaluated, it was based on the result, and the simulation system was designed and mounted on Windows. Java was used for mounting of a system. Access and the execution to a system are possible through WWW. Moreover, a system provides the function, which computes the parameter of a basic model from the characteristics (productivity, days required for technical acquisition, etc.) of a project. Thereby, the project administrator without the knowledge about a basic model can also use a system now comparatively easily. I set up the virtual project (virtual project) with the feature typical as a software development project, and had the subjective estimate and the estimate using the system performed to each six skillful administrators. Consequently, in the estimate of a development term, the thing, which used subjective, estimate value and a subjective system and which it estimates and no difference is between values was confirmed at 5% of significant levels. Furthermore, the difference in the knowledge which a developer has was expressed in detail, and by expressing the knowledge structure required of work enforcement on a cognitive map showed that it could be reflected in progress.