Research on Preventive Policy Measures for Global Environmental Risks in relation to Trade and Economic Development

本项目的目标是制定政策措施，改进与贸易和经济发展有关的环境风险管理。我们利用风险分析、博弈论和复杂适应系统这三种方法，研究了三个主要问题：全球环境污染风险管理的预防性方法--基于博弈论框架的跨国界环境污染风险管理共识构建方案边界环境问题。从复杂适应系统的角度设计一个政策分析框架，以应对全球环境问题。以下是本研究的部分成果，分别以风险分析、博弈论、复杂系统理论为基础：（1）确定经济全球化和东北亚环境问题所涉及的一些重要问题，特别是日本与中国的关系，2）通过建立环境资源分配的跨国冲突的历史和经济数据库，运用博弈论框架对解决邻国间冲突进行了实证分析从绿色NNP的角度，结合经济指标和环境核算体系，对可持续发展战略进行了研究。4）在传统贸易框架下，考虑到跨境环境污染，构建了新的国际贸易理论模型。5）沿着-建立了资源利用的长期动态模型，分析了全球气候变暖问题与农业发展和资源利用的关系。通过复杂系统理论的数值模拟，讨论了一些政策含义。

The goal of this project was to develop policy measures for improving the environmental risk management in relation to trade and economic development, By using the three approaches of risk analysis, the game theory, and complex and adaptive system, we took up three main problems :Precautionary approach of risk management toward the global environmental pollution risksConsensus building scheme in game theoretic framework for trans-boundary environmental problem.Designing a policy analytic framework in terms of complex and adaptive system to the global environmental problem.The followings are the some of the research outputs developed on the basis of the risk analysis, game theory, complex system theory, respectively :1) Identifying some of the important issues involved in the economic globalization and environmental problems in North-east Asia, in particular, the relation between Japan and China, we explored some of the possible strategies toward the prevention of the global environmental pollution in this region.2) The empirical analysis was developed using game theoretic frame to solve conflicts among the neighbor countries by developing historical and economical database of multinational conflicts on an allocation of the environmental resource.3) Strategy of sustainable development was examined in terms of the green NNP associated with the economic indicator and environmental accounting system.4) A new theoretical model of international trade was constructed by taking account of the trans-boundary environmental pollution in the traditional trade framework.5) Along-term dynamic model of resource utilization is constructed to analyze the global warming issue in relation to the agricultural development and resource utilization. Some of the policy implication are discussed through numerical simulations of complex systems theory.