'Comprehensive' Research on the desaster tolerance in Japanese food system : with the specified concerns to the recording of Heisei Rice Riot

日本粮食系统抗灾能力的“综合”研究：特别关注平成稻米骚乱的记录

• 批准号: 11660229
• 负责人: HIGUCHI Teizo
• 金额: $ 2.3万
• 依托单位: Nihon University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1999 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11660229/
• 关键词: The Great Cool Summer Damage in 1993; Rice purchasing panic in 1933; Rice purchasing behavior of rice farmer; Gifting rice habit of rice farmer; Stock holding behavior for safety by rice farmer; Emergent rice import in 1993-4; Chronological table of

1. With relation to the so-called Heisei Rice Confusion in 1993, we were able to classified two different stage in the process of panic eruption, using the monthly volume statistics of rice handred by retailers. The former stage confusion triggered by the shortage of rice resource for the rice farmer's domestic use and the later stage confusion brought about by consumer2. Traditional gifting rioe behavior of rice farmer was effective in gaining momentum in panic.3. The diffusion process of panic starting from rice prcducer toward ccnsumer was clarified by simple econometric model.4. The propensity of holding rice stock by rice farmers affected significantly their behavior about whether they rushed to rice retailer or not.5. Information issued by the government or or cooperative headquarter to aim to mitigate consumer's uneasiness was not necessarily successful. The release of growth index of paddy rice by central government has the statisticaly significant relation with the demand for rice at retailer. This result implies that consumer including rice shortage farmer, were affected by this information to make decision to change their rice stock.6. The performance of the emergent import of rice at the Heisei Rioe Confusion was by and large not bad with such reservation as the 'loose' world rice market at tha time.7. In terms of panic resistance, or propensity to extend panic, Japanese food-system has so inferior characteristics that the administrator should aware this point when confronted by emergent condition.8. The importance of holding appropriate volume of stock can not be exaggerated to say.9. The chronological table of rice purchasing panic process was constructed by using major and local newspapers

1.关于1993年所谓的平成大米混乱，我们能够分类两个不同阶段的恐慌爆发的过程中，使用零售商处理的大米的月度数量统计。前一阶段的困惑是由于稻农家庭用米资源短缺而引发的，后一阶段的困惑是由于消费者2。稻农的传统赠与行为在恐慌中具有获得动力的作用.通过简单的计量模型，阐明了恐慌从大米生产者向消费者的扩散过程.米农持有大米库存的倾向显着影响他们是否冲向大米零售商的行为。由政府或合作社总部发布的信息，旨在减轻消费者的不安，并不一定成功。中央政府发布的稻谷生长指标与零售商对稻谷的需求有显著的相关关系。这一结果意味着消费者，包括缺粮农民，会受到这些信息的影响，从而做出改变大米库存的决定。平成理江大混乱时期紧急进口大米的表现，与当时“松散”的世界大米市场相比，大体上是不错的。就恐慌抵抗力或扩大恐慌的倾向而言，日本的食物系统具有如此低劣的特征，管理者在面临紧急情况时应该意识到这一点。持有适当数量的股票的重要性不能夸大地说。利用主要报纸和地方报纸构建了大米收购恐慌过程的时序表

项目成果

Nakayama, S & T. Higuchi: "Post-harvest behavior of rice farmer and their gifting rice habit"Journal of Rural Economics. (Appendix). 128-133 (2001)

中山，S

樋口貞三, 中山里美: "農家パニックと米無償譲渡行動:平成5年「米騒動」を中心に"農業経済研究. 別冊. 122-127 (2001)

Teizo Higuchi、Satomi Nakayama：“农民的恐慌和免费大米转让行为：聚焦1993年的“大米骚乱””农业经济研究特刊122-127（2001）。