Building the forecasting model on going concern of the companies

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It is very important to predict a possibility of going concern of the firms. This study is to build a model which is able to forecast the bankruptcy and decline of the enterprises. We have researched proceeding studies on the going concern and turn-around of the firms.Sometimes, we visited the ranking company and discussed about a possibility of building a forecasting model of going concern. We got R&I's "ranking data base on bond" of non-life insurance firms, and tried to forecast the ranking of them. To analyze what kind of the factor make up and down the ranking bonds, we made ranking data convert to ranking order. Both a probit model and a logit model were employed, and they yielded interesting results. We believe our model will be unique enough because such models have not been found.Explaining ranking order change, we found significant factor, reserve per assets, total operating assets, balance of reserve, disposed income, assets-liability ratio, operating profit and loss.