China's Livestock Food Product Supply and Feed Grain Use

本研究考察了1979- 1999年中国畜产品的生产和消费、饲料谷物的使用情况，以及畜产品消费增长对粮食供应或耕地利用的影响。本研究采用中国国家统计局1996年调整后的牲畜统计数据，将1996年前后的牲畜统计数据进行关联。通过肉制品生产与肉制品消费的比较，考察了畜产品统计中高估的可能性和程度，并利用调整后的屠宰数和屠宰后胴体对牲畜的重率对肉制品生产进行了重新估计。1999年估计的肉类产量比牲畜统计数字低440万吨，即7.4%。饲料效率在省平均水平和农户水平上进行了检验。结果表明：1979 ~ 1999年，猪和鸡（蛋鸡）平均屠宰胴体重与饲料食用量之比分别提高了45%和91%。技术进步、草食性牲畜所占份额的增长，以及采用传统畜牧业、有效利用剩余食物和农场副产品的小农户所占比例相对较高，这些都对节省饲料粮食做出了巨大贡献。估算结果表明，饲料粮食在粮食生产中的份额从1979年的16%左右稳步增长到1999年的35%。

This study investigates China's production and consumption of livestock food products, feed grain use during the 1979-99 period, as well as the effects of growing livestock product consumption on grain supply or farmland use.1. Using the adjusted 1996 livestock statistics by China's State Statistical Bureau, this study links the livestock statistics before and after 1996. By comparing the production with consumption of meat products, this study also examines the possibility and degree of over-estimation in livestock product statistics, and re-estimates the meat production, using the adjusted number of slaughtered animals and weight rates of dressed carcass to livestock. The estimated 1999 meat production is lower than livestock statistics by 4.4 million tons, or 7.4%.2. The feed efficiency is examined at province average and farm household levels. The results indicate that the ratios of average dressed carcass weight to feed grain use in swine and poultry (layers) have risen by 45% and 91% respectively, from 1979 to 1999. Technical progress, the share growth of herbivorous livestock, and a relatively large percentage of small farmers with traditional livestock practices that effectively use leftover food and farm by-products, have greatly contributed to feed grain saving.3. The estimation results show that the share of feed grain in grain production steadily increased by about 16% in 1979 to 35% in 1999.