China's Livestock Food Product Supply and Feed Grain Use

本研究调查了1979- 1999年中国畜产品的生产和消费、饲料用粮的使用以及畜产品消费增长对粮食供应和耕地利用的影响.本研究利用国家统计局调整后的1996年牲畜统计数据，将1996年前后的牲畜统计数据联系起来。通过比较肉类产品的生产和消费，本研究还探讨了畜产品统计中高估的可能性和程度，并使用调整后的屠宰动物数量和屠宰胴体与牲畜的重量比率重新估计肉类生产。估计1999年肉类产量比牲畜统计数字低440万吨，即7.4%。在省平均水平和农户水平上检查饲料效率。结果表明，1979 ~ 1999年，猪、禽（蛋鸡）平均屠体重与饲料用粮比分别提高了45%和91%。技术进步、草食性牲畜的份额增长以及相对较大比例的小农采用传统畜牧业做法，有效利用剩余食物和农场副产品，极大地促进了饲料谷物的节约。估计结果表明，饲料粮在粮食生产中所占的份额稳步上升，从1979年的16%左右上升到1999年的35%。

This study investigates China's production and consumption of livestock food products, feed grain use during the 1979-99 period, as well as the effects of growing livestock product consumption on grain supply or farmland use.1. Using the adjusted 1996 livestock statistics by China's State Statistical Bureau, this study links the livestock statistics before and after 1996. By comparing the production with consumption of meat products, this study also examines the possibility and degree of over-estimation in livestock product statistics, and re-estimates the meat production, using the adjusted number of slaughtered animals and weight rates of dressed carcass to livestock. The estimated 1999 meat production is lower than livestock statistics by 4.4 million tons, or 7.4%.2. The feed efficiency is examined at province average and farm household levels. The results indicate that the ratios of average dressed carcass weight to feed grain use in swine and poultry (layers) have risen by 45% and 91% respectively, from 1979 to 1999. Technical progress, the share growth of herbivorous livestock, and a relatively large percentage of small farmers with traditional livestock practices that effectively use leftover food and farm by-products, have greatly contributed to feed grain saving.3. The estimation results show that the share of feed grain in grain production steadily increased by about 16% in 1979 to 35% in 1999.