RESEARCH FOR MAKING AN INQUIRY ABOUT PATHOLOGY OF CHRONIC LIVER DISEASE ASSOCIATD WITH HCV INFECTION

用马尔可夫过程建立数学模型，描述HCV携带者的自然病程。该模型基于不同临床阶段的HCV携带者的临床过程。根据该模型，我们评估了干预措施的有效性，如检查和治疗HCV携带者，以降低与HCV感染相关的肝细胞癌（HCC）的死亡率。在此基础上，我们主要从以下三个方面进行了研究：第一，利用马尔科夫过程建立了HCV携带者的自然病程模型。该模型包括无症状携带者、慢性肝炎、肝硬化、HCC和HCC感染消退五个临床阶段。其次，我们重新计算了942例HCV携带者的临床病程数据的数学模型，这些携带者是在献血的机会下发现的。我们估计40岁时无症状携带者中HCC的发病率男性为10.6%，女性为4.5%。第三，利用重新计算的模型，我们从两例正常人群中获得了两个HCV携带者的临床病程，一例是筛查出的HCV携带者，另一例是未筛查出的HCV携带者。

We presented natural courses of HCV carriers using mathematical model by Marcov process. This Model is based on clinical courses of HCV carriers of various clinical stages. According to this model, we assessed efficacy of intervention, such as examination and treatment for HCV carriers, to reduce mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV infection. From this, we concluded in the following three ways.First, we made the model of natural course of HCV carrier by Marcov process. The model include five clinical stages ; asymptomatic carriers, chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, HCC, and resolution of HCC infection.Second, we recalculated the mathematical model on data of clinical course of 942 HCV carriers, who were found at the chance of blood donation. We estimated that incidence of HCC among asymptomatic carriers at the age of 40 years old was 10.6% in male and 4.5% in female. And we estimated that the incidence of HCC was very high in male over 60 years old and in female 70 years old.Third, using the recalculated model, we get two clinical courses of HCV carrier from normal population in two cases, in one case they were screened for HCV carriers and in the other case they were not.