RESEARCH FOR MAKING AN INQUIRY ABOUT PATHOLOGY OF CHRONIC LIVER DISEASE ASSOCIATD WITH HCV INFECTION

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We presented natural courses of HCV carriers using mathematical model by Marcov process. This Model is based on clinical courses of HCV carriers of various clinical stages. According to this model, we assessed efficacy of intervention, such as examination and treatment for HCV carriers, to reduce mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with HCV infection. From this, we concluded in the following three ways.First, we made the model of natural course of HCV carrier by Marcov process. The model include five clinical stages ; asymptomatic carriers, chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, HCC, and resolution of HCC infection.Second, we recalculated the mathematical model on data of clinical course of 942 HCV carriers, who were found at the chance of blood donation. We estimated that incidence of HCC among asymptomatic carriers at the age of 40 years old was 10.6% in male and 4.5% in female. And we estimated that the incidence of HCC was very high in male over 60 years old and in female 70 years old.Third, using the recalculated model, we get two clinical courses of HCV carrier from normal population in two cases, in one case they were screened for HCV carriers and in the other case they were not.