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System Analysis of Complex Features of Socio-Economic Structure based on the Complex Theory and its Application to the Risk Analysis

基于复杂理论的社会经济结构复杂特征的系统分析及其在风险分析中的应用

基本信息

批准号：
12680445
负责人：
TOKINAGA Shozo
金额：
$ 1.92万
依托单位：
KYUSHU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The project treated the analysis of complex feature of the socio-economic dynamics and its application to the risk analysis based on the complex theory. As the result of project three purposed of the project was realized, namely, 1) risk analysis and risk management of complex socio-econoinic dynamic, 2) observation of system performance based on the complex theory and the analysis of self-organization structure, 3) macro-economic formulation for the system dynamics and the application of the complex theory to the prediction and control. The basic approach of the project was the formulation of the socio-economic dynamics based on the concept of self-organizing system which has original mathematically descriptive structure, and the application of theories of uncertainty such as the GA, the fuzzy inference system, and the fractal and chaos theory. The multi-stage fuzzy inference system was used to describe the inference in a linguistic manner, and it was applied to the optimization of dy … More namical system. Moreover, many examples of the risk management and decision making in the Japanese firms in the dynamical environment were summarized as a database, and also many example for the public economics. A novel method was proposed for the improvement of the fuzzy inference system used for the clustering of a large sized observation. As a typical application for the planning problem under uncertainty, the network-based structure for the macro-economics model was proposed, and the problem was solved by using our works in the project in the complex theory and the optimization of system dynamics.In these field, many corporate works were carried out among the members of the project as well as related researchers in Japanese and foreign countries. The result of the project was published in the form of papers in several academic societies such as the Operations Research Society of Japan, the Information Processing Society of Japan, the Institute of Electronics, Information and Comiminication Engineering, Japan. Less

本项目探讨了基于复杂性理论的社会经济动态复杂性特征分析及其在风险分析中的应用。项目的结果实现了项目的三个目的，即1)复杂社会经济动态的风险分析与风险管理，2)基于复杂理论的系统绩效观察和自组织结构分析，3)系统动力学的宏观经济表述和复杂理论在预测与控制中的应用。项目的基本方法是在具有原始数学描述结构的自组织系统概念的基础上，运用遗传算法、模糊推理系统、分形和混沌理论等不确定性理论，对社会经济动力学进行表述。采用多阶段模糊推理系统对推理过程进行语言化描述，并将其应用于动态系统的优化。此外，本文还总结了动态环境下日本企业风险管理和决策的许多实例，并为公共经济学提供了许多实例。提出了一种改进大型观测数据聚类模糊推理系统的新方法。作为不确定条件下规划问题的典型应用，提出了基于网络的宏观经济模型结构，并运用复杂理论和系统动力学优化方法对该问题进行了求解。在这些领域，项目成员以及日本和国外的相关研究人员开展了许多合作工作。该项目的成果以论文的形式发表在日本运筹学学会、日本信息处理学会、日本电子信息通信工程研究所等多个学术学会。少