The Impact of Election-System Reform upon the Japanese Party Ssytem

选举制度改革对日本政党制度的影响

• 批准号: 13620094
• 负责人: TANI Satomi
• 金额: $ 2.05万
• 依托单位: OKAYAMA UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2001 至 2002
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13620094/
• 关键词: party system; frist past the post system; Duverger's law; new institutionalism; dominant party system; 1955 system; election system reform; proportional representation; 一党優位制; 選挙研究; 政党政治

My research focused on the impact on the party competition of the election-system reform of 1994 in Japan. I made a database on district-level statistics of the last two general elections in an Excel format. Then I analyzed the data to see the competition pattern among parties, deviancy among districts, the effect of dual candidacy introduced by the reform, and so on. The following is the summary of my findings.One of the most famous theories about the effect of election system on party politics is Duverger's Law. The law says that a first-past-the-post system produces a two-party system, and it has been a conventional wisdom. My analysis does confirm this law, but only on the district level. That is, in most districts, elections tend to be fought only by the top two candidates, keeping other weak candidates out of the real competition. The 2000 general election saw this tendency more clearly than the 1996 one. Needless to say, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won both elections, and … More succeeded in keeping power with its miner partners.Continuous victories of the LDP, however, do not mean the comeback of a dominant party system in Japan, my analysis says. Firstly, attention must be paid to the fact that the party failed to increase votes cast to it on the national level. In the proportional representation system, the LDP has remained as a middling party.Secondly, there were many districts where competition between the top two candidates was very close. This means that any winner in such districts cannot predict his/her victory in the next election with confidence. Such competitiveness has been accelerated by the nation-wide reallocation of seats by the 1994 reform. The new election system allocates more seats to urban and metropolitan areas than the previous system that gave advantage to the LDP. This new seat-allocation makes the LDP dominance unstable.Thirdly, we have to take the effect of PR system on a party system into account It is certain that any PR system tends to produce a multi-parly system. In Japan, some small parties can survived successive elections more easily than in a country with a simple first-past-the-post system.My conclusion is, therefore, Japan win maintain a moderate but unstable multi-party system at least in the near future. Less

我的研究重点是日本1994年选举制度改革对政党竞争的影响。我用Excel格式制作了最近两次大选的区级统计数据的数据库。然后我分析了这些数据，看看政党之间的竞争格局、地区之间的偏差、改革引入的双重候选人的效果等等。以下是我的研究结果的总结。 关于选举制度对政党政治影响的最著名的理论之一是杜韦尔热定律。法律规定，简单多数当选制会产生两党制，这已成为一种传统观念。我的分析确实证实了这项法律，但仅限于地区层面。也就是说，在大多数选区，选举往往只由排名前两名的候选人进行，而其他实力较弱的候选人则无法参与真正的竞争。 2000年大选比1996年大选更明显地看到了这一趋势。不用说，自民党（LDP）赢得了两次选举，并成功地与矿业伙伴保持了权力。然而，我的分析表明，自民党的持续胜利并不意味着日本主导政党制度的卷土重来。首先，必须注意该党未能在全国范围内增加其得票数。在比例代表制中，自民党一直处于中等政党的地位。其次，在很多选区，前两名候选人之间的竞争非常激烈。这意味着这些选区的任何获胜者都无法自信地预测他/她在下一次选举中获胜。 1994年的改革在全国范围内重新分配席位，加速了这种竞争。新的选举制度比以前的选举制度向城市和大都市区分配了更多的席位，而之前的选举制度给自民党带来了优势。这种新的议席分配使得自民党的统治地位变得不稳定。第三，我们必须考虑民联制度对政党制度的影响。任何民联制度都必然会产生多党制。这是肯定的。在日本，一些小政党比简单的简单多数当选制的国家更容易在连续选举中生存下来。因此，我的结论是，日本至少在不久的将来会赢得维持温和但不稳定的多党制度。较少的

项目成果

谷 聖美: "小選挙区比例代表並立制下の政党システム:2大政党化圧力とその阻害要因"岡山大学法学会雑誌. 52巻3号(予定). (2003)

谷清美：“单议席地区比例代表制下的政党制度：成为两个主要政党的压力及其障碍”冈山大学法学会杂志第52卷第3期（计划）。

谷 聖美: "小選挙区比例代表制下の政党システム:2大政党化圧力とその限界"岡山大学法学会雑誌. 52巻3,4号(予定). (2004)

谷清美：“单一议员地区比例代表制下的政党制度：成为两个主要政党的压力及其局限性”《冈山大学法学会会刊》第52卷第3期和第4期（计划）（2004年）。