可能性理論によるライフサイクルの短い製品の最適生産、販売モデルの構築と実証

基于可能性理论的短生命周期产品最优生产和销售模型的建立与验证

• 批准号: 14730083
• 负责人: 郭 沛俊
• 金额: $ 2.3万
• 依托单位: Kagawa University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2002 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14730083/
• 关键词: 土地開発; 不確実性; 可能性分布; active focus point; passive focus point; one-shot decision; 新聞売り子問題; 意思決定; 可能性理論; ライフサイクルの短い製品; 情報融合; ラフ集合; 複古市場

(1)顧客の好みの多様化と変化に伴い,商品のライフサイクルが急激に短くなってきた.如何に顧客のニーズをつかみ,すばやくかつ適切な意思決定を行えるかということが,企業にとって,生死にかかわる問題ともいえる.そういう意思決定問題は大変大きなリスクを負い,one-shot-decision問題と位置つけられる.従来の方法では、将来各事象の起こる不確実性を確率分布によって表し、その確率分布に基づく期待効用関数を最大化するよう意思決定を行うので,one-shot-decision問題に適用することができない.本研究は,将来各事象の起こる不確実性を可能性分布によってあらわし,各事象における各意思決定選択肢がもたらす利益とその可能性を総合的に考え,楽観的焦点と悲観的焦点を定義し,この二つの焦点の関係を分析する上で,新しい意思決定理論を提案した.(2)提案した新しい意思決定理論は,土地開発問題へ適用する.将来の土地の価格は過去の事例と専門家の知識に基づいて,可能性分布によって表した.楽観的焦点と悲観的焦点を用いて,投資家の投資行動を分析し,最適投資規模を求め、一般均衡を分析した.新しい分析方法に基づいて,土地開発の政策提言を行った.(3)以上の研究成果は国際会議6th International FLINS Conference on Computational Intelligent Systems for Applied Researchで論文"Urban land development with possibilistic information",2004 Annual Meeting of NAFIPS Conference (North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society)で論文"Urban land development based on possibility theory",2004 International Workshop of Fuzzy Systems and Innovational Computingで論文"Decision analysis based on active focus point and passive focus point"を発表した.

(1)Customer's interest in diversification and change, product's interest in variety and change. How to make rational decisions for customers, business, life and death. Rational decision problems vary greatly,one-shot-decision problems and location problems. In the future, the probability distribution of uncertainty in the occurrence of events in the future will be expressed and the probability distribution of uncertainty in the occurrence of events in the future will be expressed and the probability distribution in the occurrence of events will be expressed. This research examines the distribution of uncertainties about the occurrence of various events in the future, and the integration of the interests and possibilities of various rational decision-making options in various events. The focus of happiness and the focus of sadness are defined, and the relationship between these two focuses is analyzed, and a new theory of rational decision-making is proposed. (2)A new rational decision theory is proposed to solve the problem of land development. The future of the land is the case of the past, and the knowledge of the family is based on the distribution of possibilities. The focus of investment and the focus of investment are used to analyze the investment action of investors, to find the optimal investment scale, and to analyze the general equilibrium. The new analytical method is based on the theory of land development policy. (3)Paper "Urban land development with probabilistic information", 6th International FLINS Conference on Computational Intelligent Systems for Applied Research, 2004 Annual Meeting of NAFIPS Conference (North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society) On "Urban land development based on possibility theory", 2004 International Workshop of Fuzzy Systems and Innovative Computing "Decision analysis based on active focus point and passive focus point"

项目成果

Urban land development based on possibility theory

基于可能性理论的城市土地开发

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Proceedings of 2004 Annual Meeting of NAFIPS
• 作者: P.Guo

Decision analysis based on active focus point and passive focus point

基于主动对焦点和被动对焦点的决策分析

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Processing of 2004 International Workshop of Fuzzy Systems and Innovational Computing, 2004
• 作者: Guo;Peijun
• 通讯作者: Peijun

Peijun Guo: "Cournot Equibrium with Possibilistic Information"Proceeding of Joint 1st International Conference on Soft Computing and Intelligent Systems and 3rd International Symposium on Advanced Intelligent Systems. 1-4 (2002)

郭培军：“可能信息的古诺均衡”第一届软计算与智能系统国际联合会议暨第三届先进智能系统国际研讨会论文集。

Peijun Guo, Youhua Chen: "Newsboy Problem with possibilistic information"Proceeding of the IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems. 360-363 (2003)

郭培军、陈友华：“可能性信息的报童问题”IEEE 国际模糊系统会议论文集。

Peijun Guo, Hideo Tanaka: "Decision analysis based on fused double exponential possibility distributions"European Journal of Operational Research. 148. 467-479 (2003)

郭培君、田中秀夫：“基于融合双指数可能性分布的决策分析”欧洲运筹学杂志。