Future projection of atmospheric environmental change by anthropogenic activities in Asia-Future chemical weather mapping-

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In Asian developing countries, including China, air pollution emissions caused by anthropogenic activities have increased rapidly. For example, in China, NOx emissions increased by 2.5 times during 1980-2003; this upward tendency has been exacerbated since 2000. These emission increases trigger regional air pollution including tropospheric ozone and aerosols and undesired influences on health, food production, and ecosystems. Moreover, regional air pollution influences climate change, presenting the calamitous possibility of considerable damage to both humans and ecosystems combined with air pollution. In addition, air pollution in east Asia influences global-scale air quality and is recognized as a worldwide environmental issue. The aim of this study is (1) future projections of emissions for air pollutants in Asia, (2) development of modeling system for prediction of atmospheric environmental change, (3) chemical weather mapping of tropospheric ozone and aerosols. Future projections for 2020, we has provided three types of emissions data based on three emissions scenarios of REF, PSC, and PFC for China and emissions data based on REF for other countries. The projected PSC NOx emission caused a slight decrease (-10%) during 2000-2020 in China, but the other scenarios imparted a large increase (39% for the REF and 128% for the PFC). Annually averaged ozone concentrations increased by approximately 5 ppbv because of changes in anthropogenic emission for 2000-2020 (REF) over northeast Asia including central and east China, the Korean Peninsula, and parts of Japan. Additionally, the projected PFC emissions imply an increase of monthly averaged ozone of more than 20 ppbv in the North China Plain. Surface ozone under the PFC scenario is also enhanced in Japan during 2000-2020 in spite of the reduction of NOx emission in Japan.