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Economic analysis on carbon sequestration through optimal stochastic control model for forest resources management under uncertain environments.

不确定环境下森林资源管理最优随机控制模型的碳汇经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
15330048
负责人：
YOSHIMOTO Atsushi
金额：
$ 9.15万
依托单位：
Tohoku University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Since the Kyoto Summit in 1997, the corresponding nations started to tackle the global warming problem by reducing the level of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In Japan, the government agreed to allocate 3.9% of the pursued reduction to forest sector activities. On the other hand, the private sector of forestry is implementing the emission trading for such a purpose of reduction. While these activities for the reduction have been paid a great deal of attention, replantation and/or thinning activities are tended to be abandoned. That is, if no forestry practices were implemented, such a function of carbon sequestration induced by forests might not be apparent. Behind this phenomenon of the abandonment, there might be a fact that forest owners face future reduction of product price as well as price uncertainty, which could discourage their management incentive.In this research, we first conducted carbon balance analysis on forestry activities from plantation, harvesting, to lumbering based on our field survey and developed a statistical procedure to estimate the amount of carbon sequestered in a forest stand. Following this analysis, carbon evaluation was conducted through the optimization framework on forest stand management under the subsidy policy. Evaluation method was based on the shadow price approach. The above analyses on carbon were based on the assumption of the sustainable forest stand management. However, since forest owners face to economic uncertainty for the management, we next searched for a minimum threshold price to sustain the management. If such a price were known, the sustainable management could be implemented and the above function of carbon sequestration by forest stands becomes sure to be attained by filling a gap between the derived threshold and market prices by some kind of policy.

自1997年京都峰会以来，相应国家开始通过减少大气中二氧化碳的含量来应对全球变暖问题。在日本，政府同意将所追求的减排量的 3.9% 用于林业部门活动。另一方面，林业私营部门正在实施排放交易以达到减排目的。虽然这些减少活动受到了极大的关注，但重新种植和/或间伐活动往往被放弃。也就是说，如果不实施林业实践，森林带来的固碳功能可能并不明显。在这种废弃现象的背后，可能存在森林所有者面临未来产品价格下降以及价格不确定性的事实，这可能会打击他们的管理积极性。在本研究中，我们首先根据实地调查对林业活动从种植、采伐到采伐进行碳平衡分析，并开发了一个统计程序来估算林分中的碳固存量。在此分析基础上，通过补贴政策下的林分管理优化框架进行碳评估。评估方法基于影子价格法。上述碳分析是基于可持续林分管理的假设。然而，由于森林所有者的管理面临经济不确定性，我们接下来寻找维持管理的最低门槛价格。如果知道这样一个价格，就可以实施可持续管理，并且通过某种政策填补得出的阈值与市场价格之间的差距，就一定能实现林分固碳的上述功能。