Economic analysis of natural disturbance and management abandonment risk for sustainable forest resource management

木材的有效利用对森林资源的可持续利用和管理具有重要意义。但是，最近木材价格下降以及台风等自然灾害造成的破坏加速了放弃诸如疏林和种植等森林管理，这反过来又威胁到森林资源的可持续利用。预测自然干扰破坏和森林经营放弃风险将为森林可持续经营提供重要信息。本研究采用多学科交叉的方法，通过风洞模拟、统计建模、跨时间空间优化建模，并利用地理信息系统（GIS），探讨了风险对冲可持续资源管理对缓解自然干扰风险和放弃管理的影响。

The effective utilization of timber is important for sustainable use and management of forest resources. However, recent flagging timber prices as well as damages by natural disturbances such as typhoon have accelerated the abandonment of forest management such as thinning and planting which in turn is threatening the sustainable use of forest resources. Projecting the risk of natural disturbance damages and forest management abandonment will provide important information for conducting sustainable forest management. In this study, through an interdisciplinary approach, we conducted a wind tunnel simulation, statistical modeling, inter-temporal spatial optimization modeling, and with use of geographic information system (GIS), we examined the risk hedge sustainable resource management that could stimulate mitigation of the risk of natural disturbance and management abandonment.