Research on the strategies for economic and social development under depopulation

本研究的目的是探讨在世纪上半叶日本人口减少的情况下，如何寻求保持经济活力的必要条件<st>。它扩展到（1）历史人口减少案例的研究;（2）科普人口减少的宏观经济增长和生产率分析;（3）企业行为和战略的微观经济分析;以及（4）科普人口减少的区域发展战略，选择关西地区的案例。该研究的主要内容包括：第一，人口减少背景下的经济增长与生产率分析，包括技术分析、增长潜力分析、增长制约因素分析、包括部门进出口在内的计量经济模型构建、财政金融政策分析。第二，人口减少背景下的经济发展案例分析。包括与匈牙利人口专家讨论中东欧经济战略，与中国人口高峰期专家交流信息。第三，企业战略、区域金融和就业的微观经济研究。包括企业结构与数据共享、金融机构的作用、劳动者的工作年限、传统日本式企业制度的改革等。第四，地区人口减少及其对策。包括农业活动、农业和区域公共服务，如老龄化下的客运、区域金融的作用、地方政府采取的政策措施调查及其分析。

This research investigates to seek necessary conditions to maintain economic vitality under shrinking population in Japan in the first half of the 21^<st> century. It extends to (1)study of historical population shrinkage cases ; (2)analysis of macroeconomic growth and productivity to cope with depopulation ; (3)microeconomic analysis of corporate behaviour and strategy ; and (4)regional development strategy to cope with depopulation, picking up cases of the Kansai area. The study particularly focused on the followings and announced the research results in the regional symposium.First, analysis of economic growth and productivity including analysis on technology, growth potentials, constraint to growth, econometric model building including sectoral export and import, and fiscal and financial policy under the context of population shrinkage.Second, case study of economic development under depopulation : including economic strategy of Central and Eastern Europe through discussions with demographic experts of Hungary, and information exchange with experts of China where population will peak out in the future.Third, microeconomic study of corporate strategy, regional finance and employment : including corporate structure and data sharing, roles of financial institutions, working life of workers, and reform of traditional Japanese style business system.Fourth, regional population shrinkage and its countermeasures : including agricultural activity,, agricultural and regional public services such as passenger traffic under ageing, roles of regional finance, surveys of policy measures adopted by local governments and their analysis.