Research on the strategies for economic and social development under depopulation

本研究旨在探讨21世纪上半叶日本在人口萎缩的情况下保持经济活力的必要条件。它扩展到：(1)历史人口萎缩案例的研究；(2)宏观经济增长和生产率分析，以应对人口减少；(3)企业行为与战略的微观经济分析；(4)应对人口减少的区域发展战略，以关西地区为例。本研究特别着重于以下方面，并在区域研讨会上公布了研究成果。首先，经济增长和生产率分析，包括技术分析、增长潜力分析、增长约束分析、计量经济模型构建（包括部门进出口）以及人口萎缩背景下的财政金融政策分析。第二，人口减少下的经济发展案例研究：通过与匈牙利人口专家的讨论，包括中欧和东欧的经济战略，以及与未来人口将达到峰值的中国专家的信息交流。三是企业战略、区域金融与就业的微观经济研究：包括企业结构与数据共享、金融机构角色、劳动者工作年限、传统日式企业制度改革等。第四，区域人口萎缩及其对策：包括农业活动、老龄化下的农业和区域公共服务（如客流量）、区域财政的作用、地方政府采取的政策措施的调查和分析。

This research investigates to seek necessary conditions to maintain economic vitality under shrinking population in Japan in the first half of the 21^<st> century. It extends to (1)study of historical population shrinkage cases ; (2)analysis of macroeconomic growth and productivity to cope with depopulation ; (3)microeconomic analysis of corporate behaviour and strategy ; and (4)regional development strategy to cope with depopulation, picking up cases of the Kansai area. The study particularly focused on the followings and announced the research results in the regional symposium.First, analysis of economic growth and productivity including analysis on technology, growth potentials, constraint to growth, econometric model building including sectoral export and import, and fiscal and financial policy under the context of population shrinkage.Second, case study of economic development under depopulation : including economic strategy of Central and Eastern Europe through discussions with demographic experts of Hungary, and information exchange with experts of China where population will peak out in the future.Third, microeconomic study of corporate strategy, regional finance and employment : including corporate structure and data sharing, roles of financial institutions, working life of workers, and reform of traditional Japanese style business system.Fourth, regional population shrinkage and its countermeasures : including agricultural activity,, agricultural and regional public services such as passenger traffic under ageing, roles of regional finance, surveys of policy measures adopted by local governments and their analysis.