Research on the strategies for economic and social development under depopulation

本研究旨在寻求在21世纪上半叶日本人口不断减少的情况下保持经济活力的必要条件。它延伸到(1)研究历史人口减少的案例；(2)分析宏观经济增长和生产率以应对人口减少；(3)微观经济分析企业行为和战略；(4)区域发展战略以应对人口减少为例。本研究侧重于以下几个方面，并在区域研讨会上公布了研究成果。第一，经济增长与生产率分析，包括技术、增长潜力、增长约束、包括部门进出口在内的计量经济模型建立，以及人口萎缩背景下的财政和金融政策。第二，人口减少背景下的经济发展案例研究：通过与匈牙利人口专家的讨论，包括中东欧经济战略的讨论，以及与中国专家的信息交流，其中人口将在未来达到峰值。第三，企业战略、区域金融与就业的微观经济研究：包括公司结构与数据共享，金融机构的作用，工人的工作生活，第四，区域人口萎缩及其对策：包括农业活动、农业和老龄化下的客运等区域公共服务、区域财政的作用、地方政府采取的政策措施的调查和分析。

This research investigates to seek necessary conditions to maintain economic vitality under shrinking population in Japan in the first half of the 21^<st> century. It extends to (1)study of historical population shrinkage cases ; (2)analysis of macroeconomic growth and productivity to cope with depopulation ; (3)microeconomic analysis of corporate behaviour and strategy ; and (4)regional development strategy to cope with depopulation, picking up cases of the Kansai area. The study particularly focused on the followings and announced the research results in the regional symposium.First, analysis of economic growth and productivity including analysis on technology, growth potentials, constraint to growth, econometric model building including sectoral export and import, and fiscal and financial policy under the context of population shrinkage.Second, case study of economic development under depopulation : including economic strategy of Central and Eastern Europe through discussions with demographic experts of Hungary, and information exchange with experts of China where population will peak out in the future.Third, microeconomic study of corporate strategy, regional finance and employment : including corporate structure and data sharing, roles of financial institutions, working life of workers, and reform of traditional Japanese style business system.Fourth, regional population shrinkage and its countermeasures : including agricultural activity,, agricultural and regional public services such as passenger traffic under ageing, roles of regional finance, surveys of policy measures adopted by local governments and their analysis.