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Development of Dynamic Applied General Equilibrium Models for Evaluating lntecgenerational and Intertemporal allocations of Resources

开发动态应用一般均衡模型来评估资源的跨代和跨期配置

基本信息

批准号：
16330040
负责人：
BAN Kanemi
金额：
$ 4.7万
依托单位：
Osaka University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

(1) We developed multi-regional and multi-sectoral social accounting matrix by matching the GTAP database and IEA energy and CO2 database.(2) By using the social accounting matrix, we developed two alternative types of dynamic applied general equilibrium model. The one is forward-looking model, and the other is recursive dynamic model. Both models are developed on GAMS/MPSGE, which is one of the most popular platforms for modeling. Selection of two alternatives depends on the analytical purposes.(3) In the case of developing dynamic models, the social accounting matrix should be arranged for satisfying dynamic equilibrium conditions. We developed several algorithms for this arrangement.(4) In the case of forward-looking dynamic model, an expected change in the future plays an important role in the current decisions. We illustrated that the commitments based on the Kyoto Protocol during the period 2008 to 2012 have strong impacts on the world economy before 2008. These movements are als … More o validated by the observed data. We also study about the post Kyoto framework, which is the most important topic in the world. We presented lots of simulations based on several scenarios. - Then, we provided pay-off tables in order to evaluate each proposition as the post Kyoto framework.(5) We also use our dynamic general equilibrium model for analyzing the impacts of trade and investment liberalization on the world economy. The world economy suffers from conflicts among countries. According to our analysis, liberalization has negative impacts on specific industry in specific country, but we can illustrate that the world economy get benefit in total. Our conclusion is that countries in the world should discuss the pay-offs reduced by simulations results based on the models.(6) Finally, we developed overlapping generation model where decision makers are assumed to live finite. Decision making tends to delay because of pains caused by solving problems. We illustrated that the current generation tends to send their own burdens such as climate change caused by CO2 emissions to the future generation. We proposed that low discount rate committed in law is appropriate for avoiding delay in decisions. Less

(1)通过匹配GTAP数据库和IEA能源和二氧化碳数据库，建立了多地区、多部门的社会核算矩阵。(2)利用社会核算矩阵，建立了两种可供选择的动态应用一般均衡模型。一种是前瞻性模型，另一种是递归动态模型。这两个模型都是在最流行的建模平台之一GAMS/MPSGE上开发的。两种方案的选择取决于分析的目的。(3)在开发动态模型的情况下，社会核算矩阵的安排应满足动态均衡条件。在前瞻动态模型的情况下，未来的预期变化在当前决策中起着重要的作用。我们表明，2008年至2012年期间以《京都议定书》为基础的承诺对2008年前的世界经济产生了重大影响。这些动作是肌萎缩侧索硬化症…并通过观测数据进行了验证。我们还研究了世界上最重要的话题--后京都框架。我们给出了基于几种场景的大量模拟。-然后，我们提供了收支表，以评估每个主张作为后京都框架。(5)我们还使用我们的动态一般均衡模型来分析贸易和投资自由化对世界经济的影响。世界经济饱受国家间冲突之苦。根据我们的分析，自由化对特定国家的特定行业有负面影响，但我们可以说明世界经济总体上受益。我们的结论是，世界各国应该在模型的基础上讨论通过模拟结果减少的收益。(6)最后，我们建立了重叠生成模型，其中假设决策者的生活是有限的。由于解决问题带来的痛苦，决策往往会被推迟。我们说明，当前这一代人倾向于将他们自己的负担，如二氧化碳排放造成的气候变化，转嫁给下一代人。我们提出，在法律上承诺较低的贴现率是适当的，以避免决策的延误。较少