APROBABILISTIC PREDICTION MODEL ON SEDIMENT PRODUCTION IN MOUNTAIN REGION

山区产沙量概率预测模型

基本信息

批准号：
17560458
负责人：
FUJITA Masaharu
金额：
$ 2.39万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17560458/
关键词：
Sediment production Freeze and thaw Weathered bedrock Bare slope Landslide Shallow slope failure Global warming Reservoir sedimentation 堆砂量地中温

项目摘要

It is important to develop a model describing the essential points of usual or unusual sediment production process to estimate precisely the sediment production rate. In this research, taking up the sediment production due to freezing and thawing as a usual event and the slope failure as an unusual event, we have proposed the fundamental models that could provide the probabilistic properties of sediment production if the probability density functions of atmospheric and hydrological variables are introduced into the models. Firstly, we have developed a model for freezing and thawing process on bare slopes. Air temperature, wind velocity and solar radiation are included in the model as the parameters and also slope angle and direction can be considered. Therefore, an advantage of the model is applicable for any slopes in the world where the atmospheric, hydrological and topographical data are available. The validity of the model was verified by comparison between the observation data and the simulation result for Mt. Tanakami and the Takahara river basin. A transformation process from weathered bedrock to soil should be investigated, but this model could be developed as an evaluation model for the influence of the global warming on the sediment production. Secondly, we have proposed a numerical model on slope failure considering the soil pipes inside of slopes. Using the model, we discussed the influence of soil pipes and the piles clogging on the occurrence of slope failure. Also, we have investigated the characteristics of slope failure for two different types of slope, namely, two slopes sustained mainly by cohesion force or friction force. For the former, a long collapse with much water content occurs, and for the latter, a phased slope failure composed of short collapses take place.

重要的是要开发一个描述通常或异常沉积物生产过程的基本要点，以准确估算沉积物生产率。在这项研究中，由于冻结和解冻为通常的事件而引起的沉积物产生，并且斜率失败是不寻常的事件，如果将大气和水文变量的概率密度功能引入模型，则可以提供沉积物生产的概率性能的基本模型。首先，我们已经开发了一个模型，用于裸露斜坡上的冻结和融化过程。模型中包括空气温度，风速和太阳辐射，因为参数以及斜率角度和方向。因此，该模型的优势适用于世界上任何可用的大气，水文和地形数据的斜率。通过比较Tanakami和Takahara River盆地的观测数据与模拟结果之间的比较来验证该模型的有效性。应该研究从风化基岩到土壤的转换过程，但是可以开发该模型作为全球变暖对沉积物产量影响的评估模型。其次，考虑到斜坡内部的土壤管道，我们提出了一个数值模型。使用该模型，我们讨论了土壤管道和堆积物对斜率故障发生的影响。此外，我们已经研究了两种不同类型的斜率的斜率故障的特征，即，两个斜率主要由凝聚力或摩擦力持续。对于前者而言，发生了大量水分的长时间崩溃，而对于后者来说，发生了一个由短倒塌的坡度故障。