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Development of short-period strong motion prediction method considering medium heterogeneity and application for great subduction zone earthquakes

考虑介质非均质性的短周期强震预测方法及其在俯冲带大地震中的应用

基本信息

批准号：
17560527
负责人：
SATOH Toshimi
金额：
$ 1.93万
依托单位：
Research Institute of Shimizu Construction Co.
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Long-period strong motions have been in the spotlight since the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake. During great subduction-zone earthquakes, however, short-period strong motions would be also big and so short-period structures would be damaged. Therefore we develop an advanced statistical Green's function method to predict short-period strong motions more accurately. For source effects, we develop a method to invert a characterized source model by adding restrictions based on so-called strong motion prediction recipe and apply the method to the 2005 west off Fukuoka prefecture earth-quake and the 2005 Miyagiken-oki earthquake. We also consider the heterogeneity in each asperity of the source model and predict broadband strong motions for hypothesized Nankai earthquake. For path effects, we construct an envelope model based on a scattering theory to introduce the effects of medium heterogeneity into short-period strong motions.Then we apply the developed method to strong motion prediction for hypothesized Miyagiken-oki earthquake and Nankai earthquake. In addition we predict building damage ratio of short-period structures such as ordinary wooden houses and low-rise rein-forced-concrete buildings and environmental burden using predicted strong motions for the Nankai earthquake.Strong motions mentioned above are horizontal components for S-wave. In this study we extend the statistical Green's function method in order to reasonably predict strong motions of both horizontal and vertical components for both P and S waves. We also develop empirical attenuation relations of both horizontal and vertical components for both P and S waves to verify the Green's functions or predicted strong motions.

自2003年十胜冲地震以来，长周期强运动一直是人们关注的焦点。然而，在俯冲带大地震中，短周期强震动也会很大，因此短周期结构会受到破坏。因此，我们发展了一种改进的统计绿色函数方法来更准确地预报短周期强震。对于震源效应，我们开发了一种方法，通过添加限制的基础上，所谓的强运动预测食谱，并应用该方法对2005年西部的福冈县地震和2005年宫城县冲地震的特征源模型进行反演。我们还考虑了震源模型中每个粗糙体的不均匀性，并对假设的南海地震进行了宽带强震预测。对于路径效应，我们基于散射理论构造了一个包络模型，将介质非均匀性的影响引入到短周期强震中，并将该方法应用于假想的宫城县地震和南海地震的强震预测。此外，我们还利用南海地震的预测强震，预测了普通木结构房屋和低层钢筋混凝土房屋等短周期结构的建筑物破坏率和环境负荷。在这项研究中，我们扩展了统计绿色函数方法，以便合理地预测P波和S波水平和垂直分量的强运动。我们还发展了P波和S波水平分量和垂直分量的经验衰减关系，以验证绿色函数或预测的强震。