Ground-atmosphere modelling of mountain permafrost evolution: Strategies to combine RCM and subsurface simulations

山地永久冻土演化的地面大气模拟：结合 RCM 和地下模拟的策略

• 批准号: 53489879
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Christian Hauck
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Department Troposphärenforschung (IMK-TRO)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2007-12-31 至 2011-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/53489879?language=en
• 关键词: Ground; atmosphere; modelling; mountain; permafrost

Within this project regional climate simulations shall be combined with a permafrost specific subsurface model for assessing the sensitivity of Alpine permafrost regions to climate change. Due to large differences in spatial scales between state-of-the-art Regional Climate Models (RCM; 10 km x 10 km) and subsurface models for permafrost impact studies (< 250 m), a meaningful link involves development of adequate numerical and statistical techniques for spatio-temporal coupling of RCM scenario time series to permafrost evolution models. Suitable downscaling techniques will be developed based on mountain permafrost specific atmospheric forcing parameters (radiation, 2 m temperature, snow cover duration) as well as changes in frequency of dominant weather systems. Based on an existing soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transport (SVAT) model, a mountain permafrost specific subsurface model will be developed to analyse probable evolution scenarios of subsurface temperature and ice content (permafrost degradation or aggradation). Simulations will be conducted for the various mountain permafrost test sites of the Bündel and validated through data sets from all Bündel partners as well as PERMOS (Permafrost Monitoring Switzerland) and PACE (Permafrost and Climate in Europe) networks.

在本项目中，区域气候模拟应与永久冻土特定地下模型相结合，以评估阿尔卑斯山永久冻土区对气候变化的敏感性。由于最先进的区域气候模型（RCM; 10 km x 10 km）和用于永冻层影响研究的地下模型（< 250 m）之间在空间尺度上存在很大差异，因此一个有意义的联系是开发适当的数值和统计技术，将区域气候模型情景时间序列与永冻层演变模型进行时空耦合。将根据山区永久冻土特定的大气强迫参数（辐射、2米温度、积雪持续时间）以及主要天气系统频率的变化，开发适当的降尺度技术。将在现有土壤-植被-大气-传输模型的基础上，开发一个山区永久冻土特定的地下模型，以分析地下温度和冰含量（永久冻土退化或加积）的可能演变情景。将对Bündel的各个山区永久冻土试验场进行模拟，并通过所有Bündel合作伙伴以及PERMOS（瑞士永久冻土监测）和PACE（欧洲永久冻土和气候）网络的数据集进行验证。