Economic Development of China and Trade Policies of Japan and China in East-Asia : CGE Analyses for International Division of Labor

我们的研究主要集中在中国经济发展的特点、东亚贸易政策和CGE分析三个方面。它可以分为以下几种。1.提出了中国经济发展的理论模式，探讨了东亚共同体的框架。模型中引入了沿海发达地区与内陆欠发达地区之间的经济差距，明确了经济发展水平对产业集聚与分离模式的影响。东亚地区国际分工的最新特征是三角贸易，日本/韩国/台湾向中国/东盟出口核心零部件，而这些国家向SU/欧盟出口最终产品。在理论分析中，我们考察了市场细分在企业中的重要作用，并指出东亚地区新的国际分工结构可以用规模经济和范围经济的概念来解释。分析了东盟+3与东盟+3 +3框架的差异，并讨论了其对东亚共同体的战略意义.本文运用可计算一般均衡模型对东亚经济一体化进程进行了定量评价。通过对欧盟经济一体化的比较分析，阐明了两个地区经济一体化的差异。对现有的动态CGE模型进行了修正，以科普发展中国家的特点。利用修正后的模型对东亚地区之间以及东亚地区与美国、欧盟之间的贸易/投资联系进行了评估。结果发现，东盟+3的更广泛的自由贸易区需要较少的结构调整比东盟+中国或东盟+韩国的较小的自由贸易区的情况下。这是一个有趣的结果。国际分工在东亚地区得到了广泛的发展，东亚地区的部分FTA集团可能是低效的。

Our research focused on the three points, characteristics of economic development in China, trade policies in East Asia, and CGE analyses. It could be divided into the follows.1. Theoretical modes for economic development of China were made and a framework of East-Asia community was investigated. The economic disparity between advanced coastal area and under-developed inland area was introduced in the model and scenarios of patterns for industrial concentration and separation, depending on economic developments, were made clear. The recent feature of international division of labor in East Asia is the triangle trade, Japan/Korea/Taiwan export core parts to China/ASEAN, and these export final products to SU/EU. Important roles of segmentation in business firms were investigated in our theoretical analyses and it is made clear that the new structure international division of labor in East Asia could be explained using concepts of scale economy and economy of scope. It was also investigated about difference in frameworks of ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+3+3, and discussed about their strategic importance for East-Asia community.2. CGE (Computable general Equilibrium) models are used to evaluate quantitatively a progress of economic integration in East-Asia. Comparative analysis to the economic integration in EU was made to clarify the differences between the two regions. The existing dynamic CGE model was revised to cope with characteristics of developing China. The revised model was used to evaluate progress of trade/investment connection among East Asia, and between East-Asia and US or EU. It was found that wider FTA of ASEAN+3 requires less structural adjustments than the cases of smaller FTA as ASEA + China or ASEAN + Korea. This is an interesting result. International division of labor is widely progressed in East Asia and a partial FTA grouping in East Asia might be inefficient.