Mathematical modeling to protect emerging Flu

保护新兴流感的数学模型

• 批准号: 18540138
• 负责人: YASUDA Hidenori
• 金额: $ 0.95万
• 依托单位: Josai University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2006 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18540138/
• 关键词: Transmission of disease; Simulation; Influenza; School closure; Prohibition of traffic; Vaccination; Commuters; 学級閉鎖; 通勤

In Greater Tokyo, many people commute by railroad between suburbs and downtowns for 1 or 2 h per day. The spread of influenza in the suburbs of Tokyo should be studied including the roll of commuters. We analyzed the spread of simulated influenza in commuter towns along a suburban railroad, using the individual-based Monte Carlo method and validated using the surveillance. This simulation reflected the mechanism of the real spread of influenza in the commuter towns. Three measures against the spread of influenza, prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of children were analyzed. Prohibition of traffic was not effective after the introduction of influenza into the commuter towns, but early implementation has some effect of delay of the epidemics. School closure delayed the epidemics, but its decrease in the infected population was small. Vaccination of children decreased the numbers not only of infected children but also of infected adults in the regional communities.

在大东京地区，许多人每天乘坐铁路往返于郊区和市中心之间1或2小时。应该研究流感在东京郊区的传播情况，包括通勤者的名单。我们分析了模拟流感在沿着市郊铁路的通勤城镇的传播，使用基于个人的蒙特卡罗方法，并使用监测进行验证。模拟结果较好地反映了流感在通勤城镇的真实的传播机制。分析了防止流感传播的三项措施，即禁止交通、关闭学校和儿童接种疫苗。在流感传入通勤城镇后，禁止交通并没有效果，但早期实施对延迟流行有一定效果。学校关闭推迟了流行病的发生，但感染人口的减少幅度很小。儿童接种疫苗不仅减少了受感染儿童的人数，也减少了区域社区受感染成人的人数。

项目成果

Preparedness for the spread of influenza: Prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of children in the commuter towns of Tokyo

• DOI: 10.1007/s11524-008-9264-0
• 发表时间: 2008-07-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF URBAN HEALTH-BULLETIN OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF MEDICINE
• 影响因子: 6.6
• 作者: Yasuda, Hidenori;Yoshizawa, Nobuaki;Suzuki, Kazuo
• 通讯作者: Suzuki, Kazuo

Effectiveness of realistic vaccination strategies for contact networks of various degree distributions.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.05.033
• 发表时间: 2006-11
• 期刊: Journal of theoretical biology
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: F. Takeuchi;Kenji Yamamoto

東京近郊のインフルエンザ流行伝播シミュレーション

东京附近的流感疫情传播模拟

• 发表时间: 2007
• 期刊: 数理解析研究所講究録 1551
• 作者: 安田 英典;鈴木 和男
• 通讯作者: 鈴木 和男

Pattern formations of the two-phase shallow water equations

两相浅水方程的模式形成

• 发表时间: 2007
• 作者: Yasuda;H.;et. al.;H.Yasuda
• 通讯作者: H.Yasuda