Mathematical modeling to protect emerging Flu

在大东京区，许多人每天乘坐火车往返于郊区和市中心之间1到2个小时。应该研究流感在东京郊区的传播情况，包括通勤者的人数。我们使用基于个体的蒙特卡罗方法分析了模拟流感在市郊铁路沿线通勤城镇的传播情况，并通过监测进行了验证。这一模拟反映了流感在通勤城镇真实传播的机制。分析了防止流感传播、禁止交通、学校关闭和儿童接种疫苗的三项措施。流感进入通勤城镇后，禁行措施并未奏效，但及早实施对疫情有一定的延缓作用。学校关闭推迟了疫情的流行，但其在受感染人口中的下降幅度很小。儿童接种疫苗不仅减少了受感染儿童的数量，而且减少了区域社区中受感染的成年人的数量。

In Greater Tokyo, many people commute by railroad between suburbs and downtowns for 1 or 2 h per day. The spread of influenza in the suburbs of Tokyo should be studied including the roll of commuters. We analyzed the spread of simulated influenza in commuter towns along a suburban railroad, using the individual-based Monte Carlo method and validated using the surveillance. This simulation reflected the mechanism of the real spread of influenza in the commuter towns. Three measures against the spread of influenza, prohibition of traffic, school closure, and vaccination of children were analyzed. Prohibition of traffic was not effective after the introduction of influenza into the commuter towns, but early implementation has some effect of delay of the epidemics. School closure delayed the epidemics, but its decrease in the infected population was small. Vaccination of children decreased the numbers not only of infected children but also of infected adults in the regional communities.