Simulation model against transmission of pandemic influenza H1N1

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The spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza was prominent among teenagers. The transmission coefficient from outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 influenza among school children in Japan in early summer 2009 was estimated. Using this transmission coefficient, we performed a forecast with a virtual community model called the virtual Chuo Line, which models an area immediately to the west of metropolitan Tokyo. The simulation method we used is an individual-based Monte Carlo method. We sought measures that were able to mitigate the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza, even when the availability of a vaccine was delayed. At the end of February 2010, influenza activity returned to baseline levels in Japan. We conducted a post-analysis of the spread of the pandemic H1N1 influenza calibrating the transmission probabilities of simulation based on real data until February in Tokyo.