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The disaster risk assessment technique by the statistical approach and its applications for the safety measures

统计方法灾害风险评估技术及其在安全措施中的应用

基本信息

批准号：
18310111
负责人：
SEKINE Kazusyohi
金额：
$ 6.06万
依托单位：
Yokohama National University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2006
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2006 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-18310111/
关键词：
Risk assessment Risk curve Decision making Fractal Risk communication 災害統計分析安全施策立案 GIS

项目摘要

In the present study, the methodology of the decision making for the disaster risk assessment and the safety measures was suggested by using a new industrial disaster statistics analysis technique.The results obtained during the period of 2006-2007 are as follows.(1) The actual data of the various industrial disasters were analyzed by the proposed method in the present study and the parameters which showed the risk of the industrial disasters were arranged from the risk curve. Furthermore, the risks of the various industrial disasters were compared using the parameters.(2) The display method on the map of the risk distribution was examined by using GIS to express the risk characteristic for the risk communication between the stakeholders.(3) The new analytical model for the occurrence characteristics for the various industrial disasters was suggested to verify the method in the present study. Moreover, the occurrence characteristics for the various industrial disasters were also simulated using the percolation model.(4) The tool of the risk communications was discussed from the viewpoint of social psychology.

本研究利用一种新的工业灾害统计分析技术，提出了灾害风险评估和安全措施决策的方法，并在2006-2007年期间取得了如下成果。(1)利用所提出的方法对各种工业灾害的实际数据进行了分析，并从风险曲线中整理出反映工业灾害风险的参数。此外，各种工业灾害的风险进行了比较，使用的参数。(2)探讨了利用GIS表达风险特征，在风险分布图上显示风险特征的方法，以便于利益相关者之间进行风险沟通。(3)为验证该方法的有效性，提出了一种新的工业灾害发生特征分析模型。此外，还利用渗流模型模拟了各种工业灾害的发生特征。(4)从社会心理学的角度探讨了风险沟通的工具。