The disaster risk assessment technique by the statistical approach and its applications for the safety measures

本研究利用一种新的工业灾害统计分析技术，提出了工业灾害风险评估和安全措施的决策方法，并在2006-2007年间取得了以下成果：(1)利用本文提出的方法对各种工业灾害的实际数据进行了分析，并从风险曲线中排列出反映工业灾害风险的参数。研究了风险分布图上的风险显示方法，利用地理信息系统来表达风险特征，便于利益相关者之间的风险沟通。(3)提出了各种工业灾害发生特征的新的分析模型，以验证本研究的方法。此外，还利用渗流模型模拟了各类工业灾害的发生特征。(4)从社会心理学的角度探讨了风险沟通的工具。

In the present study, the methodology of the decision making for the disaster risk assessment and the safety measures was suggested by using a new industrial disaster statistics analysis technique.The results obtained during the period of 2006-2007 are as follows.(1) The actual data of the various industrial disasters were analyzed by the proposed method in the present study and the parameters which showed the risk of the industrial disasters were arranged from the risk curve. Furthermore, the risks of the various industrial disasters were compared using the parameters.(2) The display method on the map of the risk distribution was examined by using GIS to express the risk characteristic for the risk communication between the stakeholders.(3) The new analytical model for the occurrence characteristics for the various industrial disasters was suggested to verify the method in the present study. Moreover, the occurrence characteristics for the various industrial disasters were also simulated using the percolation model.(4) The tool of the risk communications was discussed from the viewpoint of social psychology.