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Risk estimation for large-scale accidents using risk curve and statistical analysis and its application for prevention of industrial accidents

利用风险曲线和统计分析进行大型事故风险评估及其在预防工业事故中的应用

基本信息

批准号：
16510109
负责人：
SEKINE Kazuyoshi
金额：
$ 2.37万
依托单位：
Yokohama National University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

In the risk assessment using statistical accident analysis by regulatory agencies, the main concerns are often on the risk of extreme events in large-scale accidents. This study demonstrates a statistical methodology for the risk estimation of extreme events on various industrial accidents and corrosion damages in bottom floors of oil storage tanks, based on the risk curve previously proposed by the authors, in which the exceedance cumulative probability in event occurrence are plotted on log-log scale as a function of their magnitude of damages. The analytic expression for asymptotic distribution for maxima in damages has been derived by means of the statistics of extremes and this concrete form has been shown to be the second type asymptotic distribution for maxima (Frechet type distribution). The relationship between characteristic parameters in the risk curves and their asymptotic form has been investigated. A link between statistical parameters for risk curve and asymptotic distributions has been shown and this has been verified by using the statistical real data on aircraft crash, labor accident, fire accident and leakage accident of hazardous materials.From the practical point of view, to evaluate the predictability of the expected damage magnitude is considered to be significant. Through the analysis with actual accidents data and series of percolate simulations, possibility to predict the expected maximum magnitude of events by applying the extreme value theory has been presented. As the result, prediction by using return period might be applicable to the rough estimation. According to theses considerations, it is demonstrated that the proposed methodology is applicable to assess the safety management level.

在监管机构使用统计事故分析进行风险评估时，主要关注的往往是大规模事故中极端事件的风险。本研究展示了一种统计方法的风险估计的极端事件的各种工业事故和腐蚀损害的油罐底板，基于风险曲线的作者，其中的事件发生的累积概率的双对数标度绘制作为其损害的大小的函数。本文利用极值统计方法导出了损伤最大值渐近分布的解析表达式，并证明了这种具体形式是第二类最大值渐近分布（Frechet型分布）。研究了风险曲线特征参数与其渐近形式之间的关系。本文指出了风险曲线的统计参数与渐近分布之间的联系，并用飞机失事、劳工事故、火灾事故和危险品泄漏事故的真实的统计数据进行了验证，从实际出发，认为评价期望损失量的可预测性是有意义的。通过对实际事故数据的分析和一系列渗滤液模拟，提出了应用极值理论预测事故最大期望值的可能性。因此，利用重现期进行预测，可用于粗略估计。根据这些考虑，它表明，所提出的方法是适用于评估安全管理水平。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（14）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Noise anlysis for acustic emission evaluation of floor conditions in above-ground tank

地上储罐地面条件声发射评估的噪声分析

DOI：
发表时间：
2004
期刊：
Hihakaikensa(Journal of the Japan Society for Non-Destructive Inspection) 53(11)
影响因子：
0
作者：
Mayumi Hori;Masakazu Ohashi;S.Yuyama
通讯作者：
S.Yuyama

リスク曲線を用いた重大災害の発生規模予測法の提案

提出一种利用风险曲线预测严重灾害规模的方法