Prediction of short- and long-term stock fluctuations of Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus related to climate change

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We used the new reproductive hypothesis to explain and predict the stock structure or stock fluctuation related to climatic regime shifts and global warming scenario during the 20^<th>-21^<st> Century. We conclude that short and long-term change of T. pacificus stock can be explained and predicted by physical parameters such as SST, and bottom topography during the spawning period based on this new reproductive hypothesis. Based on this method, we can then monitor the trend of stock fluctuation and structural change such as a seasonal shift of the spawning period related to abrupt changes of the inferred spawning areas. As an example, we present how to monitor the recent seasonal changes of inferred spawning areas and predict the stock condition of the next year cohort. Further, we try to predict the fate of T. pacificus during the 21st Century based on the Global Warning Scenario (IPCC, 2007) using the Earth Simulation System (FRCGC, Frontier Research Center of Global change, Japan). The inferred main spawning grounds still occur from the southern Japan Sea and the East China Sea by 2099. However, the peak of spawning period will shift from October-February in 2005 to November-March in 2050, and December-April in 2099.