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The Construction of a Mathematical Economic Model using the Complex System for an Economic Analysis Concerning the Decreasing Number of Labors with the Declining Birthrates

用复杂系统构建数学经济模型对劳动力数量减少和少子化进行经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
19530165
负责人：
TAKAGI Ichiro
金额：
$ 2.75万
依托单位：
Tokai University (2008-2010)Kyushu Tokai University (2007)
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2007 至 2010
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

This study has the following academic significances:(1) We have constructed a mathematical economic model of the complex system that was the most important problem in building an economic-geographic model, and which had not significantly studied.(2) We have constructed an economic-geographic model by modifying agent-based model, a cutting edge technique in numerical analysis that had not used because of its mathematical difficulties regardless of its known usefulness in mathematical economics. We could also offer economists a useful computer program package for employing agent-based models.This study has not only above-mentioned academic significances but also great significance in terms of demographical analysis. The demographical model developed by Weidlich-Haag was originally a mathematical model that emphasizes empirical significance that could contribute to forecasting demographic movement in the European Union. In Japan, it was once believed that the demographic movement would slow down due to its declining birthrate and because of its aging society. However, there are the regions where population has been declining, and all the people move out of some villages in those regions. On the other hand, it is forecasted that there will be a large increase in population in the big cities like Tokyo. Such demographic movements as population increase in big cities and population decrease in some remote regions become one of the most urgent political agenda in Japan as well as in China and the Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, this study is planned to solve these problems by applying a mathematical economic approach. It is needless to say that this study presents helpful and critical suggestions to the policy makers, and thus we hoped that this study would contribute to demographical analysis and policy making.

本研究具有以下学术意义：(1)我们构建了复杂系统的数学经济模型，这是建立经济-地理模型中最重要的问题，但没有得到重大研究。(2)我们通过修改基于主体的模型来构建经济-地理模型，该模型是数值分析中的一种前沿技术，由于其数学上的困难而没有使用，尽管它在数理经济学中有已知的用途。我们还可以为经济学家使用基于主体的模型提供有用的计算机程序包。本研究不仅具有上述学术意义，而且在人口统计学分析方面也具有重要意义。魏德利希-哈格开发的人口统计学模型最初是一个数学模型，强调可有助于预测欧盟人口流动的经验意义。在日本，人们一度认为，由于出生率下降和社会老龄化，人口流动将放缓。然而，有一些地区的人口一直在下降，所有的人都搬离了这些地区的一些村庄。另一方面，据预测，东京等大城市的人口将大幅增加。大城市人口增加、一些偏远地区人口减少等人口流动，成为日本、中国和东南亚国家最紧迫的政治议程之一。因此，本研究计划运用数学经济学的方法来解决这些问题。不用说，这项研究为政策制定者提供了有益的和批判性的建议，因此我们希望这项研究能为人口统计分析和政策制定做出贡献。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（0）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

中華人民共和国の人口抑制政策の経済および社会への影響

中华人民共和国人口控制政策的经济和社会影响

DOI：
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
東海大学総合経営学部紀要第1号
影响因子：
0
作者：
高木一郎;顧ウェン;高木スワンナ
通讯作者：
高木スワンナ

The Kramers-Moyal expansion of the master equation that describes human migration in a bounded domain

描述有界域内人类迁徙的主方程的 Kramers-Moyal 展开式

DOI：
发表时间：
2009
期刊：
Nonlinear Analysis series B: Real World Applications (Elsevier Science) Vol.10
影响因子：
0
作者：
M. Tabata;N. Eshima;I. Takagi
通讯作者：
I. Takagi

Entropy correlation coefficient for measuring predictive power of genera-lized linear models

用于测量广义线性模型预测能力的熵相关系数