Has the Phillips Curve Flattened?

菲利普斯曲线变平了吗？

• 批准号: 19530278
• 负责人: SENDA Takashi
• 金额: $ 2.08万
• 依托单位: Hiroshima University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2007 至 2009
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-19530278/
• 关键词: インフレーション; 金融政策; フィリップス曲線; 主成分分析; 労働の保蔵; 犠牲率; インフレ; グローバライゼーション; 生産性; 自然失業率

In this study, we investigate what is the best measure of labor market pressure for predicting wage inflation in Japan. Principal components analysis is used to select a subset of independent variables from 11 labor market variables. The first component is interpreted as the active opening rate and the second component is interpreted as total hours worked. We estimate a standard Phillips curve for wage inflation that incorporates the active opening rate and total hours worked as regressors. We find that (hourly) real wage growth is positively related to the active opening rate and negatively related to total hours worked. The second component (representing total hours worked) may help explain why wage inflation has not risen substantially despite Japan experiencing high active opening rates in the mid-2000s, when both total hours worked and active opening rates increased. Although higher active opening rates put upward pressure on real wage growth, this upward pressure is offset by longer working hours, which tend to reduce (hourly) real wage growth.

在这项研究中，我们探讨了什么是预测日本工资通胀的劳动力市场压力的最佳指标。主成分分析从11个劳动力市场变量中选取自变量子集。第一要素被解释为主动开启率，第二要素被解释为总工作时数。我们估计了工资通胀的标准菲利普斯曲线，该曲线将主动开工率和总工作时间作为回归量。我们发现（每小时）实际工资增长与主动开工率正相关，与总工作时间负相关。第二个组成部分（代表总工作时间）可能有助于解释为什么尽管日本在2000年代中期经历了高活跃开业率，但工资通胀并未大幅上升，当时总工作时间和活跃开业率都有所增加。虽然较高的主动开工率对实际工资增长构成上行压力，但这种上行压力被较长的工作时间所抵消，这往往会降低（每小时）实际工资增长。

项目成果

Inflation : Causes and Effects (分担執筆 : Takashi Senda, "Wage Inflation and Labor Market Pressure : A Principal Components Approach," pp. 121-136)

通货膨胀：原因和影响（撰稿人：Takashi Senda，“工资通胀和劳动力市场压力：主成分法”，第 121-136 页）

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: Senda;Takashi;千田隆;Leon V. Schwartz(編者)
• 通讯作者: Leon V. Schwartz(編者)

Wage Inflation and Labor Market Pressure

工资通胀和劳动力市场压力

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: Senda;Takashi;千田隆
• 通讯作者: 千田隆

Inflation History and the Sacrifice Ratio : Episode-Specific Evidence

通货膨胀历史和牺牲比率：特定事件的证据

• 发表时间: 2008
• 期刊: Contemporary Economic Policy 26・3
• 作者: Senda;Takashi
• 通讯作者: Takashi