Has the Phillips Curve Flattened?

在本研究中，我们调查了什么是预测日本工资上涨的最佳劳动力市场压力。主成分分析是用来选择一个子集的自变量从11个劳动力市场变量。第一个组成部分被解释为主动打开率，第二个组成部分被解释为总工作时数。我们估计一个标准的菲利普斯曲线的工资通胀，包括积极的开放率和总工作时间作为回归。我们发现，（小时）真实的工资增长是积极的开放率和总工作时间呈负相关。第二个组成部分（代表总工作时数）可能有助于解释为什么尽管日本在2000年代中期经历了高活跃开业率，但工资通胀率没有大幅上升，当时总工作时数和活跃开业率都增加了。虽然较高的主动开业率对真实的工资增长造成了上行压力，但这种上行压力被较长的工作时间所抵消，这往往会降低（每小时）真实的工资增长。

In this study, we investigate what is the best measure of labor market pressure for predicting wage inflation in Japan. Principal components analysis is used to select a subset of independent variables from 11 labor market variables. The first component is interpreted as the active opening rate and the second component is interpreted as total hours worked. We estimate a standard Phillips curve for wage inflation that incorporates the active opening rate and total hours worked as regressors. We find that (hourly) real wage growth is positively related to the active opening rate and negatively related to total hours worked. The second component (representing total hours worked) may help explain why wage inflation has not risen substantially despite Japan experiencing high active opening rates in the mid-2000s, when both total hours worked and active opening rates increased. Although higher active opening rates put upward pressure on real wage growth, this upward pressure is offset by longer working hours, which tend to reduce (hourly) real wage growth.