Explaining the Variation in the Costs of Reducing Inflation on the Assumption of Adaptive Expectations.

在2003-2004年研究期间，撰写了两篇新论文，修订并发表了一篇论文。以下是这些论文的标题和摘要。1.确定产出和通货膨胀的可变性：菲利普斯曲线和货币政策反应函数负责吗？本文通过分析泰勒货币政策反应函数和菲利普斯曲线方程中的政策参数来确定通货膨胀和产出的可变性。理论和实证研究产生了两个关键结果。首先，货币政策反应函数中参数较大的国家，通胀率较低且稳定。第二，菲利普斯曲线较平坦的国家（即，价格粘性较高的国家）的产出变动较大。本文还考察了通货膨胀和产出变动的决定因素以及菲利普斯曲线斜率的决定因素。2.在适应性的假设下解释降低通货膨胀成本的变动 ...更多信息 给予期望。（共同论文）本文试图在适应性预期的假设下，解释降低通货膨胀的成本的变化。当通胀预期是“适应性”形成的时候，牺牲率由菲利普斯曲线的斜率、个人修正预期的速度以及过去的实际通胀率决定。由于牺牲率取决于通货膨胀的历史，因此对个别通货紧缩事件的比率的估计差异很大。我们表明，一个更稳定的牺牲率可以通过定义该比率为一年的真实的GDP的百分点，必须放弃，以减少预期通货膨胀1个百分点的数量。该牺牲率仅取决于菲利普斯曲线的斜率和预期通货膨胀的调整速度，而不取决于过去的实际通货膨胀，因此适合于分析预期通货膨胀的调整速度与通货紧缩的成本之间的关系。本研究表明，政策制定者可以通过快速实施反通胀政策来降低降低通胀的成本。实证部分表明，通货膨胀率越低，预期通货膨胀率的调整速度越慢，因此通货膨胀率下降的代价越大。3.通货膨胀与产出-通货膨胀权衡关系的阶段性证据。（联合文件）减

Two new papers are written and one paper is revised and published during the 2003-2004 research period. The following are the titles and abstracts of these papers.1.Determining Output and Inflation Variability : Are the Phillips Curve and the Monetary Policy Reaction Function Responsible?This study analyzes the policy parameters in a Taylor monetary policy reaction function and a Phillips curve equation to determine the variability of inflation and output. The theoretical and empirical investigations yield two key results. First, countries with large parameters in the monetary policy reaction function have low and stable inflation. Second, countries with flatter Phillips curve (i.e., those with a higher degree of price stickiness) have larger output variability. This article also examines the determinants of inflation and output variability as well as determinants of the slope of the Phillips curve.2.Explaining the Variation in the Costs of Reducing Inflation on the Assumption of Adapt … More ive Expectations. (A joint paper)This paper attempts to explain the variation in the costs of reducing inflation on the assumption of adaptive expectations. When expectations of inflation are formed "adaptively," the sacrifice ratio is determined by the slope of the Phillips curve, the speed at which individuals revise their expectations, and past actual rates of inflation. Because the sacrifice ratio depends on the history of inflation, estimates of the ratios for individual disinflation episodes vary substantially. We show that a more stable sacrifice ratio can be obtained by defining the ratio as the number of percentage points of a year's real GDP that must be forgone to reduce expected inflation by 1 percentage point. This sacrifice ratio is suitable for analyzing a relationship between the adjustment speed of expected inflation and the cost of disinflation since it only depends on the Phillips curve slope and the adjustment speed of expected inflation, and not on past actual inflation. This study shows that policymakers can reduce the cost of reducing inflation by implementing a disinflation policy quickly. The empirical part of this study suggests that the cost of disinflation is larger than the cost of reflation since the adjustment speed for expected inflation is slower when inflation is decreasing.3.Episode-Specific Evidence on the Relationship between Inflation and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff. (A joint paper) Less