Explaining the Variation in the Costs of Reducing Inflation on the Assumption of Adaptive Expectations.

在适应性预期假设下解释降低通货膨胀成本的变化。

• 批准号: 15530216
• 负责人: SENDA Takashi
• 金额: $ 0.83万
• 依托单位: HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2003 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15530216/
• 关键词: Monetary policy; Sacrifice ratio; Adaptive expectations; Taylor rule; Phillips curve; Inflation; Output-inflation tradeoff

Two new papers are written and one paper is revised and published during the 2003-2004 research period. The following are the titles and abstracts of these papers.1.Determining Output and Inflation Variability : Are the Phillips Curve and the Monetary Policy Reaction Function Responsible?This study analyzes the policy parameters in a Taylor monetary policy reaction function and a Phillips curve equation to determine the variability of inflation and output. The theoretical and empirical investigations yield two key results. First, countries with large parameters in the monetary policy reaction function have low and stable inflation. Second, countries with flatter Phillips curve (i.e., those with a higher degree of price stickiness) have larger output variability. This article also examines the determinants of inflation and output variability as well as determinants of the slope of the Phillips curve.2.Explaining the Variation in the Costs of Reducing Inflation on the Assumption of Adapt … More ive Expectations. (A joint paper)This paper attempts to explain the variation in the costs of reducing inflation on the assumption of adaptive expectations. When expectations of inflation are formed "adaptively," the sacrifice ratio is determined by the slope of the Phillips curve, the speed at which individuals revise their expectations, and past actual rates of inflation. Because the sacrifice ratio depends on the history of inflation, estimates of the ratios for individual disinflation episodes vary substantially. We show that a more stable sacrifice ratio can be obtained by defining the ratio as the number of percentage points of a year's real GDP that must be forgone to reduce expected inflation by 1 percentage point. This sacrifice ratio is suitable for analyzing a relationship between the adjustment speed of expected inflation and the cost of disinflation since it only depends on the Phillips curve slope and the adjustment speed of expected inflation, and not on past actual inflation. This study shows that policymakers can reduce the cost of reducing inflation by implementing a disinflation policy quickly. The empirical part of this study suggests that the cost of disinflation is larger than the cost of reflation since the adjustment speed for expected inflation is slower when inflation is decreasing.3.Episode-Specific Evidence on the Relationship between Inflation and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff. (A joint paper) Less

在2003-2004年研究期间，编写了两篇新论文，修订并发表了一篇论文。以下是这些论文的标题和摘要。1.确定产出和通胀变异性：菲利普斯曲线和货币政策反应函数有责任吗？本研究分析了泰勒货币政策反应函数和菲利普斯曲线方程中的政策参数，以确定通胀和产出的变异性。理论和实证研究产生了两个关键结果。首先，货币政策反应函数中参数较大的国家通胀率较低且稳定。其次，菲利普斯曲线较平坦的国家(即价格粘性程度较高的国家)的产出波动较大。本文还考察了通货膨胀和产出变异性的决定因素以及菲利普斯曲线斜率的决定因素。2.在适应…的假设下解释降低通货膨胀的成本的变化更多的期望。(联合论文)本文试图在适应性预期的假设下解释降低通胀成本的变化。当通胀预期“适应性地”形成时，牺牲比率由菲利普斯曲线的斜率、个人修正预期的速度和过去的实际通货膨胀率决定。由于牺牲比率取决于通货膨胀的历史，因此对个别通货紧缩时期的比率的估计有很大的不同。我们证明，通过将牺牲比率定义为一年的实际GDP的百分比，可以获得更稳定的牺牲比率，为了将预期通货膨胀率降低1个百分点，必须放弃这个百分点。这个牺牲比率只取决于菲利普斯曲线的斜率和预期通货膨胀的调整速度，而不取决于过去的实际通货膨胀，因此适合于分析预期通货膨胀的调整速度和通货紧缩成本之间的关系。这项研究表明，政策制定者可以通过迅速实施通缩政策来降低降低通胀的成本。这项研究的经验部分表明，通货紧缩的成本大于通货再膨胀的成本，因为当通货膨胀率下降时，预期通货膨胀率的调整速度较慢。3.关于通货膨胀与产出-通货膨胀权衡关系的具体证据。(联名文件)较少

项目成果

Determining Output and Inflation Variability : Are the Phillips Curve and the Monetary Policy Reaction Function Responsible?

确定产出和通货膨胀变异性：菲利普斯曲线和货币政策反应函数有责任吗？

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Economic Inquiry 43(2)
• 作者: 棟近みどり;Midori Munechika;棟近みどり;棟近みどり;Midori Munechika;棟近みどり;Takashi Senda
• 通讯作者: Takashi Senda