On the Existence of the non-Keynesian Effects in Japan

在本研究中，我们应用Hjelm（2002）的方法测试了日本是否存在非凯恩斯效应，该方法基于依次求解的消费函数。日本以往对该课题的研究都是基于欧拉方程；因此，它至少在方法论观点上是新的。本研究最重要的结果是发现了日本经济中非凯恩斯效应的存在，并发现如果结构性初级赤字占GDP的比例下降1%或该比例在两年内累计下降1.5%，我们可以获得1%的私人消费增长。除此之外，我们还研究了以下三个相关点：(1)使用阈值VAR研究非凯恩斯效应的存在性；(2)对预算赤字/政府债务与长期利率的关联进行实证分析；(3)公共资本生产率，它将通过家庭预期未来收入的变化与非凯恩斯效应相关联。这些补充将有助于理解本研究的主题和未来的研究。

In this study, we tested whether the non-Keynesian effects existed in Japan applying Hjelm (2002)'s methodology, which was based on the solved-out consumption function in turn. All of the previous studies on this topic in Japan were based on the Euler equation ; therefore, it was new at lease in the methodological points of view. The most important results of this study was to detect the existence of the non-Keynesian effects in Japanese economy, and to find that we could obtain 1% increase in private consumption if the ratio of structural primary deficit to GDP decreased by 1% or the cumulative decrease in this ratio for two years amounted to 1.5%.In addition to this analysis, we studied the following three relevant points : (1)the existence of the non-Keynesian effects using Threshold VAR, (2)empirical analyses on the association of budget deficit/government debt with long-term interest rates, and (3)the productivity of public capital, which would be related to the non-Keynesian effects through changes in expected future income of households. These complements would be useful to understand the main topic of this study and for future studies.