Empirical analysis on budget deficit, government debt, and long-term interest rates.

在这个项目中，我们重新分析了预算赤字和政府债务对日本实际长期利率的影响。结果发现：(1)泡沫破裂后，日本国债收益率对18种经济对策中的6种反应积极，其中4种反映了主权风险；(2)预算赤字/GDP增加1%，将利率提高26-34个基点。此外，本项目的一项补充研究表明，紧缩的银行贷款态度和糟糕的政府财政状况削弱了财政扩张的需求促进作用。

In this project, we re-analyze the effect of budget deficits and government debt on real long-term interest rates in Japan. As the results, we found (1)the JGB yields responded positively to six of eighteen economic countermeasures after the bubble burst and four of the six cases reflected the sovereign risks,(2)1% increase in budget deficits/GDP raise the rates by 26-34 bps. In addition, a supplementary study in this project showed that tight banks' attitude toward lending and bad financial condition of the government weakened the demand-enhancing effects of fiscal expansion.