Predicting Roll Angular Motion

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The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a short time interval. We show how to both assess and correct error. In particular, we propose methods for attaching probabilities to the accuracy of predictions.