China's exchange rate policy and its impacts on Chinese and Japanese economies

中国的汇率政策及其对中日经济的影响

• 批准号: 20530248
• 负责人: HAN Chi
• 金额: $ 1.66万
• 依托单位: Osaka Prefecture University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2008 至 2010
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-20530248/
• 关键词: 政策シミュレーション; 中国の為替政策; 中国の金融政策; DSGEモデル; asymmetric preferences; inflation fluctuations; monetary policy rule; real exchange rate; DSGE model; McCallum rule; Taylor rule; PCP; LCP; China; exchange rate pass-through; exchange rate dynamics; s

This study established a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with an incomplete pass-through of exchange rate and an incomplete asset market to simulate and analyze the impacts of China's monetary policy and exchange rate policy on Chinese and Japanese and China's other main trade-partner's economies. Based on simulated results, we can obtain following conclusions :(1) This study suggests that China's monetary authority should use the McCallum rule as an optimal monetary policy to keep China's inflation stable. This study finds that compared to the Taylor rule, the McCallum rule contributes to maintaining a lower fluctuation of inflation although it generates a somewhat larger fluctuation of real output.(2) Furthermore, this study finds that the monetary policy rule under asymmetric preferences can explain why China's inflation is more flexible than its real output.(3) This study suggests that China's monetary authority should use an alternative monetary policy that reacts not only to inflation and real output but also to real exchange rate as an optimal monetary policy to manage its economy. This study finds that the alternative monetary policy will lead to a larger improvement of China's inflation fluctuation.(4) Finally, this study finds that the China's optimal monetary policies studied above have no obviously different impacts on Japanese and China's other main trade-partners'economies.

本文建立了一个汇率不完全传递和资产市场不完全的两国动态随机一般均衡模型，模拟分析了中国货币政策和汇率政策对中日两国及中国其他主要贸易伙伴国经济的影响。基于模拟结果，我们可以得出以下结论：（1）本文的研究表明，我国货币当局应该将麦卡勒姆规则作为保持我国通货膨胀稳定的最优货币政策。研究发现，与泰勒规则相比，麦卡勒姆规则虽然会导致真实的产出波动较大，但有助于维持较低的通货膨胀波动。(2)此外，本文还发现非对称偏好下的货币政策规则可以解释中国通货膨胀比真实的产出更具弹性的原因。(3)本文的研究表明，中国的货币当局应该使用一种既对通货膨胀和真实的产出做出反应，又对真实的汇率做出反应的替代性货币政策，作为管理经济的最优货币政策。本文的研究发现，替代性货币政策将导致中国通货膨胀波动的较大改善。(4)最后，本研究发现，上述中国的最优货币政策对日本和中国其他主要贸易伙伴国的经济没有明显不同的影响。

项目成果

Exchange Rate Pass-through and Dynamics in China

中国的汇率传导及动态

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: 加藤秀弥;竹内信仁;森田雄一;柳原光芳;Piyadasa Ratnayake;韓池 宮本勝浩
• 通讯作者: 韓池 宮本勝浩

ホームページ等。

主页等