Influence of change in river basin water environment against habitat environment of aquatic animals in downstream brackish lakes under global warming

研究表明，在日井川和网走川流域，农业排放的氮和磷排放量均高于降水、污水和牲畜排放量。根据SWAT模型的气候变化情景结果，预计气候变化对网走河流域的影响将强于日井河流域。此外，在气候变化情景下预测的盐度稀释和盐度浓度对于成年蛤来说不会致命。然而，蛤的产卵季节恰逢湖中盐度严重稀释的时期。由于幼体对盐度变化的耐受性较差，蛤的后代可能会受到影响，并且未来降水量的增加可能会减少蛤的繁殖。

It was revealed that effluent loads of nitrogen and phosphorus originated from agriculture were larger than those from precipitation, sewages, and livestock in both basins of Hii and Abashiri Rivers. From the results of climate change scenarios by SWAT model, it was estimated that influences of climate change in Abashiri River basin would appear stronger than Hii River basin. Moreover, the magnitudes of salinity dilutions and concentrations predicted under the climate change scenarios would not be lethal for adult clams. However, the egg-laying season of the clam would coincide with periods of strong salinity dilution in the lake. Since juveniles are less tolerant to changes in salinity, future generations of the clam may be affected and reproduction of the clam may be reduced by increasing precipitation in the future.