Protest movements in transition from insurgencies to consolidated rebel rule: The AFPRO-dataset

从叛乱到统一叛乱统治过渡的抗议运动：AFPRO 数据集

• 批准号: 537574569
• 负责人: Dr. Tareq Sydiq
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Zentrum für Konfliktforschung
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/537574569?language=en
• 关键词: Protest; movements; transition; insurgencies; consolidated

This project aims to research how the transition from insurgency to consolidated rebel governance changes opportunity structures for protest movements. The project answers this question using Afghanistan as a case study for one of the few successful rebel movements. The research question is: How does rebel success change opportunity structures for protest movements? The project will answer this through a new database on protest events before and after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. In two subprojects, complementary questions are answered. In the first subproject, these include: How did protest movements act in rebel-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt following regime change? Based on existing research, a focus on decentralized, local protests addressing rebels is expected. Successful movements are likely to later support emerging rebel governance. The second subproject aims to answer: How did protest movements act in state-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt after regime change? Existing research highlights the international community and centralized, public forms of protest. Post-regime change, they have the potential for nationwide protests, but are also more exposed to repression. Comparing trajectories of rebel-held and state-held territory allows the project to differentiate opportunity structures. The project complements existing approaches within rebel governance research by focussing on long-term developments of protest strategies after transition periods and addresses questions about social dynamics of political transformations after the end of conflicts. Existing research on rebel governance can explain protest behavior during civil war, and transformations of governances practices once rebels become successful, but there are few insights into how protest movements act after conflict is resolved. This project aims to research their strategies after rebel success. It thus contributes to recent developments within rebel governance research, which aim to conceptualize it as a historically and socially rooted phenomenon.

该项目旨在研究从叛乱到巩固叛乱治理的过渡如何改变抗议运动的机会结构。该项目以阿富汗为例，对少数几个成功的反叛运动之一进行了研究，从而回答了这个问题。研究的问题是：反叛的成功如何改变抗议运动的机会结构？该项目将通过一个关于喀布尔落入塔利班手中前后抗议事件的新数据库来回答这个问题。在两个分项目中，回答了补充问题。在第一个子项目中，这些问题包括：抗议运动在叛军控制的领土上是如何行动的？他们向谁发出的？他们有多成功？他们如何适应政权更迭？根据现有的研究，预计将重点关注针对反叛分子的分散的地方抗议活动。成功的运动以后可能会支持新出现的反叛分子治理。第二个子项目旨在回答：抗议运动在国有领土上是如何行动的？他们向谁发出的？他们有多成功？他们在政权更迭后如何适应？现有的研究突出了国际社会和集中的，公开的抗议形式。政权更迭后，他们有可能在全国范围内举行抗议活动，但也更容易受到镇压。比较叛军控制和国家控制领土的轨迹，使该项目能够区分机会结构。该项目补充了反叛治理研究中的现有方法，重点关注过渡期后抗议战略的长期发展，并解决冲突结束后政治变革的社会动态问题。现有的反叛治理研究可以解释内战期间的抗议行为，以及一旦反叛者成功，治理实践的转变，但很少有人深入了解冲突解决后抗议运动的行为。本项目旨在研究他们在叛乱成功后的策略。因此，它有助于反叛分子治理研究的最新发展，这些研究的目的是将其概念化为一种具有历史和社会根源的现象。