Protest movements in transition from insurgencies to consolidated rebel rule: The AFPRO-dataset

该项目旨在研究从叛乱到统一的反叛治理的转变如何改变抗议运动的机会结构。该项目将阿富汗作为少数几个成功的反叛运动之一的案例研究来回答这个问题。研究的问题是：反抗的成功如何改变抗议运动的机会结构？该项目将通过一个新的数据库来回答这个问题，该数据库记录了喀布尔被塔利班占领前后的抗议活动。在两个子项目中，回答了互补的问题。在第一个子项目中，这些问题包括：在叛军控制的领土上，抗议运动是如何行动的？他们对谁说话？他们有多成功？他们是如何适应政权更迭的？根据现有的研究，预计将集中在分散的、针对反叛分子的地方抗议活动上。成功的运动很可能随后支持新兴的反叛政府。第二个子项目旨在回答：在国家控制的领土上，抗议运动是如何行动的？他们对谁说话？他们有多成功？政权更迭后他们是如何适应的？现有的研究强调了国际社会和集中的公共抗议形式。政权更迭后，他们有可能举行全国性的抗议活动，但也更容易受到镇压。比较叛军控制地区和国家控制地区的发展轨迹，使该项目能够区分机会结构。该项目通过关注过渡期后抗议策略的长期发展和解决冲突结束后政治转型的社会动态问题，补充了反叛治理研究中的现有方法。现有的关于叛乱治理的研究可以解释内战期间的抗议行为，以及叛乱成功后治理实践的转变，但对冲突解决后抗议运动如何行动的见解很少。这个项目旨在研究他们在反叛成功后的策略。因此，它有助于反叛治理研究的最新发展，其目的是将其概念化为一种历史和社会根源现象。

This project aims to research how the transition from insurgency to consolidated rebel governance changes opportunity structures for protest movements. The project answers this question using Afghanistan as a case study for one of the few successful rebel movements. The research question is: How does rebel success change opportunity structures for protest movements? The project will answer this through a new database on protest events before and after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. In two subprojects, complementary questions are answered. In the first subproject, these include: How did protest movements act in rebel-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt following regime change? Based on existing research, a focus on decentralized, local protests addressing rebels is expected. Successful movements are likely to later support emerging rebel governance. The second subproject aims to answer: How did protest movements act in state-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt after regime change? Existing research highlights the international community and centralized, public forms of protest. Post-regime change, they have the potential for nationwide protests, but are also more exposed to repression. Comparing trajectories of rebel-held and state-held territory allows the project to differentiate opportunity structures. The project complements existing approaches within rebel governance research by focussing on long-term developments of protest strategies after transition periods and addresses questions about social dynamics of political transformations after the end of conflicts. Existing research on rebel governance can explain protest behavior during civil war, and transformations of governances practices once rebels become successful, but there are few insights into how protest movements act after conflict is resolved. This project aims to research their strategies after rebel success. It thus contributes to recent developments within rebel governance research, which aim to conceptualize it as a historically and socially rooted phenomenon.