Study on the Statistics Observation System and Econometrics Model for Global Flow of Funds Analysis

全球资金流动分析的统计观测系统和计量经济学模型研究

• 批准号: 21530244
• 负责人: ZHANG Nan
• 金额: $ 1.5万
• 依托单位: Hiroshima Shudo University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2009 至 2011
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-21530244/
• 关键词: 国際資金循環; 経済政策; 統計観測体系; 計量モデル; 金融リスク計測; 金融安定計測; 資金循環; 国際収支; 金融統計体系; 国際資金循環分析; 金融危機

This research explained the mechanism of global-flow-of-funds and made an outlines of theoretical analysis from three different viewpoints which the Balance of Savings-Investment, Current Balance flows, and International Capital Flow. Then based on the theory of economics, built a simultaneous-equations model for global-flow-of-funds analysis, and ran the model to interpret the characteristics and mirror image relationship in the external flow of funds between Japan, China and the US. This research also inspected the influence of global-flow-of-funds and the continual growth of macro economy on the stability of financial systems, and built a statistical monitoring system for global-flow-of-funds while referring to the FSIs frameworks of International Monetary Funds. Then linked real economics with financial economics, and combined domestic flow of funds with international capital flows, to build a composite index(CI) that reflects the risks involved in external flow of funds. Moreover, this research developed the Finance Stress Index to measure the current status of Chinese external flow of funds.

本研究从储蓄投资差额、经常收支流动和国际资本流动三个不同的角度解释了资金全球流动的机理，并对理论分析作了概述。然后以经济学理论为基础，构建了全球资金流动分析的非线性方程模型，并运用该模型解释了日、中、美三国对外资金流动的特征和镜像关系。本研究还考察了全球资金流动和宏观经济持续增长对金融体系稳定性的影响，并参照国际货币基金组织的金融稳定性指标框架，构建了全球资金流动的统计监测体系。然后将真实的经济学与金融经济学相结合，将国内资金流动与国际资本流动相结合，构建了反映资金外部流动风险的综合指数（CI）。此外，本文还提出了金融压力指数来衡量中国对外资金流动的现状。

项目成果

The New Viewpoints and New Solutions of Economic Sciences in the Information Society

信息社会经济科学的新观点与新方案

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Setsuko Sakai;Tetsuyuki Takahama
• 通讯作者: Tetsuyuki Takahama

A Statistical Model on the External Flow of Funds

资金对外流动统计模型

• 发表时间: 2011
• 作者: Zhang;Wei-Bin;張南
• 通讯作者: 張南

What Happened in China's External Flow of Funds?

中国资金对外流动到底发生了什么？

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: Zhang;Wei-Bin;Naoko Shinkai and Zenebe Bashaw;布川日佐史;張南
• 通讯作者: 張南

What Happened in China's External Flow of Funds

中国资金对外流动到底发生了什么

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: 古松紀子;根本二郎;布川日佐史;山下隆之・上藤一郎・高瀬浩二;張南
• 通讯作者: 張南

A Statistical Model for Global-Flow-of-Funds Analysis

全球资金流动分析的统计模型

• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Social Systems Solutions Applied by Economic Sciences and Mathematical Solutions
• 作者: 徳井丞次;ほか8名;張南
• 通讯作者: 張南