Study on the Statistics Observation System and Econometrics Model for Global Flow of Funds Analysis

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This research explained the mechanism of global-flow-of-funds and made an outlines of theoretical analysis from three different viewpoints which the Balance of Savings-Investment, Current Balance flows, and International Capital Flow. Then based on the theory of economics, built a simultaneous-equations model for global-flow-of-funds analysis, and ran the model to interpret the characteristics and mirror image relationship in the external flow of funds between Japan, China and the US. This research also inspected the influence of global-flow-of-funds and the continual growth of macro economy on the stability of financial systems, and built a statistical monitoring system for global-flow-of-funds while referring to the FSIs frameworks of International Monetary Funds. Then linked real economics with financial economics, and combined domestic flow of funds with international capital flows, to build a composite index(CI) that reflects the risks involved in external flow of funds. Moreover, this research developed the Finance Stress Index to measure the current status of Chinese external flow of funds.