Development of Calculation Method of Power Output FluctuationCharacteristics of Aggregated Photovoltaic Power Generation System in Metropolitan Area

通过对半径4 km范围内17个点的照度观测数据和某合作公司提供的中部地区数据的分析，发现单点观测数据由于短周期波动的独立性，在应用1/√N规则时，可以表征半径15 ~ 20 km范围内空间平均照度的波动特征。本研究在此基础上应用所谓的过渡定理，开发了考虑单个观测点周围辐照度波动平滑效应的低通滤波器。然后，将LPF应用于中部地区61个点的观测照度，并考虑与独栋住宅分布相关的个别点的贡献，计算中部地区的空间平均照度，并从短周期（32 min或更短）波动或几小时内大变化的年发生率两方面评价其波动特征。此外，本文还建立了一种从可预测性角度评价空间平均辐照度波动特征的日前预报方法。另一方面，研究开发了利用周边点观测数据估算任意位置辐照度的插值方法，以及几公里半径范围内空间平均辐照度的临近预报方法。

By analyzing both the irradiance data observed 17 points within the area of 4 km radius and the data in the Chubu region provided by a cooperative company , this study revealed that because of the independency of short-cycle fluctuation, single point observation data can represent the fluctuation characteristics of the spatial average irradiance within the area of 15 - 20 km radius, when the 1/√N rule is applied. By applying the so-called transition theorem based on this result, this study developed the low -pass filter which takes into account the smoothing effect of irradiance fluctuation around individual observation point. Then, by applying the LPF to the observed irradiance at 61 points in the Chubu region and by considering the contribution of individual points related to the distribution of the detached-houses, this study calculated the spatial average irradiance of Chubu region, and evaluated the fluctuation characteristics in terms of short-cycle (32 min or shorter) fluctuation or the annual occurrence rate of large change in a few hours. In addition, this study developed a day-ahead forecasting method of spatial average irradiance for the evaluation of fluctuation characteristics from the predictability point of view. On the other hand, this study developed the interpolation method to estimate the irradiance of an arbitrary location from the observation data of surrounding-points, and the nowcasting method of spatial average irradiance of the area of a few km radius.