Design of Prediction Market Simulation Using Co-Evolution of Agent Strategies

在本研究中，预测市场被设定为目标市场，既是真实的市场，也可以作为预测未来的工具。基于智能体的预测市场仿真设计是对预测市场进行深入研究的需要，笔者尝试利用策略协同进化的方法来实现这一目的。在制定和框架开发后，引入了各种策略模型，并进行了协同进化，最终确定进化后的策略是合理的智能体，预测更加准确。此外，还对蒙特卡罗树搜索作了一些了解。

In this research, prediction markets were set as the target, which are real markets and also can be used as a tool to predict the future. The design of agent-based-simulation of prediction markets is necessary to study them deeply, and I tried the purpose by using co-evolution of strategies. After the formulation and framework development, various models of strategies were introduced and co-evolved, finally it was confirmed that the evolved ones were reasonable agents and the prediction was more accurate. In addition, some knowledge about Monte-Carlo Tree Search is attained.