The equiprobability heuristic and causality in reasoning and judgment

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The purpose of this research was to provide comprehensive understanding of various phenomena including biases and fallacies of reasoning and judgment using probabilistic models and several basic original ideas. First, a new probabilistic model of syllogistic reasoning was proposed, and it suggested an equiprobability hypothesis of deductive reasoning. Second, a dual frame theory based on an affirmation-negation asymmetry revealed the analogous structure of seemingly unrelated performances in various tasks from different areas of psychology. Third, it was revealed that the main cause of the base rate fallacy is not neglecting the base rate, but is assuming the equiprobability of target events, and the mechanism of the assumption was explained by the dual frame theory. Fourth, the close connection between causality and equiprobability was demonstrated through the performance of a well-known probability judgment task, the Monty Hall problem.