Development of observation system for forecasting heavy rainfall.

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A method for forecasting very short-term rainfall to detect potentially hazardous convective cloud that produces heavy local rainfall was developed using simulation and actual C-band polarimetric radar data. Two kinds of cumulus cells were analyzed, one of which developed and later produced heavy rainfall, whereas the other did not. Observations made by polarimetric radar revealed that a high vertical maximum intensity of rainfall rate and a vertical area of enhanced differential reflectivity extending above the freezing level, often termed a high ZDR column, were clearly formed about 10 min prior to the onset of heavy rainfall on the ground. The results suggest that both the vertical maximum intensity of the rainfall rate and a high ZDR column, estimated from polarimetric measurements, can be used to identify potentially hazardous clouds