A Theoretical and Empirical Study on the Valuation Effects of the External Adjustment

过去二十年国际货币演变的一个突出特征是：(1)跨境资产贸易作为双向贸易呈爆炸性增长；（二）资金流入和流出总额的增长更为急剧；（三）对外资产和负债总额激增至前所未有的水平。这些新的程式化事实在高收入工业国家最为明显。因此，最近关于外部不平衡及其调整的研究强调分析总流量和存量，而不是净流量（经常帐户）。在过去几年中，对作为外部资产负债表的国际投资头寸（IIP）膨胀所产生的估值效应进行了一些研究。例如，过去对外部调整的研究侧重于传统的“贸易渠道”，即汇率变动对经常账户（CA）调整的影响。然而，最近的研究开始注意到通过外部调整的额外“估值渠道”，即国家外部资产和负债的资本收益和损失，一个国家的净外国资产状况的变化。本研究的目的是分析1995 - 2010年日本和美国的IIP结构和外部收益差异，并显示两国之间的估值效应的不对称性。我们关注的是，对于面临与美国相似的CA结构（贸易差额减少，收入差额增加），但仍然与美国不同的IIP结构的日本，考虑一些建议。

A prominent feature of international monetary evolution over the past two decades is that: (i) cross-border asset trade as two-way trade has expand explosively; (ii) gross financial inflows and outflows have increased even more dramatically; (iii) gross stocks of external asset and liability have ballooned to unprecedented levels. These new stylized facts are most evident for the high-income industrial countries. As a result, recent studies of external imbalances and their adjustment have put emphasis on the analysis of gross flows and stocks rather than net flows (current account).In the last few years, several studies have been made on the valuation effects derived from the ballooning of the international investment position (IIP) as the external balance sheet. For example, the past study of external adjustment focused on the traditional ‘trade channel’ that was the influence of the exchange rate movements on the current account (CA) adjustment. The recent study , however, begins to pay attention to the changes in a country’s net foreign asset position through the additional ‘valuation channel’ of external adjustment, namely capital gains and losses on the country’s external assets and liabilities.The purpose of this study is to analyze the IIP structure and the external return differentials in Japan and US from 1995 to 2010 and to show the asymmetry of the valuation effects between these two countries. Our concern is to consider some suggestions for Japan facing the similar CA structure as the US (the decrease of trade balance and increase of income balance) and still having the different IIP structure from the US.