Estimating seismic damage of timber structures by stochastic model

通过蒙特-卡罗模拟和可靠度分析表明，日本建筑学会“木结构设计规范”中的平行于木纹方向承载力作用下的榫钉型节点屈服模式给出了合理的破坏模式估计，但在支承垂直于木纹的情况下，若不采用随机计算方法进行木材的断裂估计，则设计不安全。研究还发现，如果不考虑随机方法来估计节点的破坏模式，则可能出现不安全的破坏机制，例如木柱的破坏。由于缺少CLT剪力墙的试验，因此随机计算可以很好地估计CLT剪力墙的破坏机理。

Monte-Carlo simulation and reliability based analysis showed that the yield mode of the dowel-type joints subjected to the bearing load parallel to the wood grain according to “Standard for structural design of timber structures” of Architectural Institute of Japan gives appropriate failure mode estimation, but it gives unsafe design in the case of the bearing perpendicular to the wood grain if the fracture estimation of wood is not conducted by stochastic calculation. It was also found that the unsafe failure mechanism such as the failure of wooden posts may occur if the post and beam moment resisting joints is designed without considering the stochastic approach to estimate the failure mode of the joint. Lacking test of CLT shear walls showed that the failure mechanism of CLT shear walls can be estimated well by stochastic calculation.