A Study on Status Quo and Future Change of Soybean Market and Related Industries in China: Through A Comparative Study with Japan

自1995年以来，中国大豆进口量显著增加，其进口量已占世界贸易的一半以上。本项目首先分析了中国大豆进口和国内消费大幅增长的背景和经济机制；然后讨论了中国大豆进口的未来趋势及其对世界市场的影响，以及中国政府对大豆贸易和国内生产的政策。通过我们的研究，可以发现以下几点：1。自1995年以来，中国植物油和猪肉、鸡肉、鸡蛋、鱼类和乳制品等动物性食品的消费量大幅增加，而同期豆腐、酱油等传统大豆加工食品的消费量则略有增加。在植物油和动物性食品消费快速增长的推动下，对榨油的需求以及大豆的总需求也显著增加。然而，现在在中国，食用油和动物性食品的人均消费已经接近日本，西餐的收入弹性也大大降低，因此，西餐和大豆需求的增长将在不久的将来大大放缓。然而，1995年大豆和食用油贸易自由化后，大豆生产陷入低迷状态，近年来开始明显下降。1995年以后的低迷状态和大豆产量的显著下降是一样的，这是由于大豆与其他竞争作物如玉米和水稻相比，由于产品价格低，产量提高缓慢而造成的盈利能力低。如果经济持续增长，可以预见，中国西餐和大豆的需求增长将大幅放缓，但在不久的将来，大豆和油菜种子的成本竞争力将继续进一步下降。如果放任不管，这些作物的产量将不可避免地进一步下降。为了避免这种情况，中国政府应首先把重点放在促进非转基因高蛋白大豆生产上，并修改目前的临时储备收购制度，然后实行按种植面积或销售量固定付款的制度。少

Since 1995, Chinese soybean import has significantly increased, its import quantityhas occupied more than half of the world trade. In this project, we first analyzed the background and economic mechanism of the huge increase of soybean import and domestic consumption in China; then discussed the future trend of Chinese soybean import and its impacts to the world market, as well as government policy on soybean’strade and domestic production in the country . By our research, it can be founded as followings:1. Since 1995, the consumption of vegetable oil and animal foods, such as pork, chicken meat, eggs, fish and dairy products have greatly increased in China, in contrast to the slightly increment in the consumption of traditional soybean processed foods, such as Tofu, Soy Sauce, in the same period. Pushed by the rapid increase of vegetable oil and animal foods’ consumption, demand for oil crushing, as well as the total demand of soybean has also significantly increased. However, now in … More China, percapita consumptions of the edible oil and the animal foods have already got closer to the Japan, and the income elasticities of those western-style foods have also largely decreased yet, so the increase of the western-style foods, and soybean demand will be going to slow down greatly in the near future.2. However, the soybean production fell into a sluggish state after the soybean and edible oil’ s trade liberalization in 1995, and began to decrease significantly in the recent year. The sluggish state after 1995, and the significant decrease of soybean production are same due to the crop’ s low profitability which is cause by the low product price and slow yield improvement, when comparing with other competing crop, such as maize and rice.3. If the economic growth continued, It could be predicted that the increase of Chinese western-style foods and soybean’ s demand will be going to slow down greatly, but the cost competitiveness of soybean, as well as rape seeds, will continue to decline further , in the near future. If be left alone, a farther decrement destiny of those crop’ s production would be unavoidable, To avoid those situation, Chinese Government should first put the pivot foot on to promoting the no GM and high protein soybean production, and revise the current temporary stockpiling purchase scheme, then introduce a fixed payment program according the cropping area or the sales volume. Less