Theoretical and Empirical Study on Global Production Network

基于最近发布的综合世界投入产出表(WIOD)和新发展的价格内生投入选择模型，我们分析了生产网络在2008年“贸易大崩溃”中的作用。研究发现，2008年贸易弹性的大幅跃升很难归因于全球生产网络，但可以用模型估计的平均约4%的出口价格溢价来系统解释。我们还分析了东亚自由贸易协定带来的结构性变化。区域间投入产出(I-O)模型与可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型相结合来评估结构变化。增值分析表明，东亚自贸协定可能会加强东亚的脱钩。

Based on the recently released comprehensive world input-output tables (WIOD) and the newly developed price-endogenized input-choice model, we analyze the role of production network in the "Great Trade Collapse" in 2008. It is found that the large jump in trade elasticity in 2008 can hardly be attributed to the worldwide production network, but it can be systematically explained by the export price premium that is estimated at about 4 percent on average by the model.We also analyze the structural change caused by East Asian Free Trade Agreements. An interregional input-output (I-O) model is combined with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate structural change. The value-added analysis suggests that East Asian FTAs are likely to strengthen decoupling in East Asia.