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Theoretical and empirical analysis of the trade structure based on the international input-output table.

基于国际投入产出表的贸易结构理论与实证分析

基本信息

批准号：
14530032
负责人：
TOKUTSU Ichiro
金额：
$ 2.11万
依托单位：
Konan University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We developed a systematic and exhaustive model that explains the intra-industry trade structure in Asia-Pacific economic region based on the international input-output table. The Jacobian matrix of the excess supply function of 20 product markets in 10 countries including the 10 labor markets was estimated. The Jacobian matrix of 199 industries within the region turns out to be a dominant diagonal with positive diagonals, indicating that the international trade market equilibrium is stable, but when the labor markets are taken into account, the Jacobian matrix is slightly different from the dominant diagonal. The simulation analysis which assumes that labor endowment increases by one unit in each country shows that (1)the wager rate of the own country decreases without exception, but the rise in the wage rate is dominant in other countries, (2)the product prices of the own country decreases in general, but for the other countries the direction of the price change shows slight variation in its direction, (3)the level of production both of the own country and other countries increases except for the case where the production level of the U.S.A. slightly decreases when the labor endowment in Indonesia increases, (4)due to the import substitution induced by the relative price change, the export of the own country always increases, while its import decreases, and (5)the effect on the other countries' export and import shows slight irregularity depending both on the place where the increase of the labor endowment occurs and the industry structure of the corresponding country. The simulation presented in this research is very primitive, but it will be extended to more practical one that can deal with the effect of policy making such as the free-trade agreement within Asia-Pacific economic region.

我们基于国际投入产出表建立了一个系统、详尽的模型来解释亚太经济区的产业内贸易结构。估算了10个国家20个产品市场（包括10个劳动力市场）的超额供给函数的雅可比矩阵。区域内199个行业的雅可比矩阵结果是对角线为正的主对角线，表明国际贸易市场均衡是稳定的，但当考虑到劳动力市场时，雅可比矩阵与主对角线略有不同。假设各国劳动力禀赋增加一个单位的模拟分析表明：（1）本国的投注率无一例外地下降，而其他国家的工资率上升占主导地位；（2）本国的产品价格总体下降，但其他国家的价格变化方向略有变化；（3）除了本国生产水平提高的情况外，本国和其他国家的生产水平均上升。当印度尼西亚劳动力禀赋增加时，美国略有下降，（4）由于相对价格变化引起的进口替代，本国的出口总是增加，而进口却减少；（5）对其他国家进出口的影响表现出轻微的不规律性，这取决于劳动力禀赋增加发生的地点和相应国家的产业结构。本研究中提出的模拟非常原始，但将扩展到更实际的模拟，可以处理亚太经济区域内自由贸易协定等政策制定的影响。