Theoretical and empirical analysis of the trade structure based on the international input-output table.

本文基于国际投入产出表，建立了一个系统的、详尽的模型来解释亚太经济区的产业内贸易结构。估计了包括10个劳动力市场在内的10个国家20个产品市场的超额供给函数的雅可比矩阵。区域内199个行业的雅可比矩阵是一个具有正对角的优势对角线，表明国际贸易市场均衡是稳定的，但考虑劳动力市场时，雅可比矩阵与优势对角线略有不同。假设每个国家的劳动禀赋增加一个单位的模拟分析表明，（1）本国的赌注率毫无例外地下降，但工资率的上升在其他国家占主导地位，（2）本国的产品价格总体上下降，但对于其他国家，价格变化的方向略有变化，（3）当印尼劳动力禀赋增加时，除美国的生产水平略有下降外，本国和其他国家的生产水平都在增加。（4）由于相对价格变化引起的进口替代，本国的出口总是增加，而进口总是减少，（5）对其他国家进出口的影响，在劳动力禀赋增长的地区和相应国家的产业结构方面都表现出一定的不规律性。本研究所提出的模拟方法是非常原始的，但它将被扩展到更实际的，可以处理的政策制定的影响，如亚太经济区内的自由贸易协定。

We developed a systematic and exhaustive model that explains the intra-industry trade structure in Asia-Pacific economic region based on the international input-output table. The Jacobian matrix of the excess supply function of 20 product markets in 10 countries including the 10 labor markets was estimated. The Jacobian matrix of 199 industries within the region turns out to be a dominant diagonal with positive diagonals, indicating that the international trade market equilibrium is stable, but when the labor markets are taken into account, the Jacobian matrix is slightly different from the dominant diagonal. The simulation analysis which assumes that labor endowment increases by one unit in each country shows that (1)the wager rate of the own country decreases without exception, but the rise in the wage rate is dominant in other countries, (2)the product prices of the own country decreases in general, but for the other countries the direction of the price change shows slight variation in its direction, (3)the level of production both of the own country and other countries increases except for the case where the production level of the U.S.A. slightly decreases when the labor endowment in Indonesia increases, (4)due to the import substitution induced by the relative price change, the export of the own country always increases, while its import decreases, and (5)the effect on the other countries' export and import shows slight irregularity depending both on the place where the increase of the labor endowment occurs and the industry structure of the corresponding country. The simulation presented in this research is very primitive, but it will be extended to more practical one that can deal with the effect of policy making such as the free-trade agreement within Asia-Pacific economic region.