Development of the simple load estimation formula based on catchment-scale water qualty models

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This research aimed at the establishment of the interval estimation method for mass load from a catchment ecosystem through the improvement of the performance of the water quality numerical/statistical model. As a result, it became apparent that the main hurdle to the proper interval estimation lies not in the improved performance of the water quality models but in the fundamental idea to calculate the mass load itself. An application of the importance sampling method, which is the one of the representative efficient Monte Carlo numerical integration methods, was an the right answer for this purpose. The importance sampling method gives the appropriate interval estimation methods of the mass load, not only as the new water quality monitoring method but also for the accumulated water quality data by the different sampling methods so far.