ローカル・グローバル環境変動下における日本のサンゴ礁の社会・生態学的脆弱性評価

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The purpose of this JSPS fellowship was to promote a cutting-edge research focused on the elucidation of the spatio-temporal patterns of the resilience related to Japanese coral reefscapes in order to provide a decision support tool to stakeholders tasked with coastal management in an era of oceano-climatic change and anthropogenic pressure. The mapping of the spatio-temporal resilience of socio-ecology systems (SES) required to focus on a suite of 17 spatialized stress-inducing and stress-mitigating factors derived from freely available spaceborne and waterborne observations, model output, historical databases and census data. As for the spatio-temporal mapping of the SES resilience, Fuzzy logic was employed to associate environmental factors based on the related population and coral responses, as found in the literature. Once the factors were weighted according to their resilience contributions, temporally static patterns were evident: 1) a negative correlation occurs between ecological resilience and latitude; 2) the least resilient islands are low-lying, deprived of wide reef barriers, and located on the eastern and southern boundaries of the Nansei archipelago; 3) the southwesternmost, middle and northeasternmost islands have the same socio-ecological resilience; and 4) Sekisei Lagoon islands have a very high ecological resilience. To overcome uncertainty, future studies should focus on the socio-ecological adaptive capacity, fine-scale ecological processes (such as coral and fish functional groups) and the prediction of the flood risks in the coming decades.