ローカル・グローバル環境変動下における日本のサンゴ礁の社会・生態学的脆弱性評価

该JSPS奖学金的目的是促进一项尖端研究，重点是阐明与日本珊瑚礁景观有关的恢复力的时空模式，以便为在海洋气候变化和人为压力时代负责沿海管理的利益攸关方提供决策支持工具。社会生态系统时空复原力的测绘需要侧重于一套17个空间化的压力诱发和缓解因素，这些因素来自免费提供的空间和水上观测、模型输出、历史数据库和普查数据。至于SES弹性的时空映射，模糊逻辑相关联的相关人口和珊瑚的反应，在文献中发现的基础上的环境因素。生态恢复力与纬度呈负相关，恢复力最差的岛屿位于南西群岛的东部和南部边界，地势低洼，没有宽阔的礁障; 3）西南、中部和东北部岛屿具有相同的社会生态恢复力; 4）Sekisei Lagoon岛屿具有非常高的生态恢复力。为了克服不确定性，今后的研究应侧重于社会生态适应能力、精细尺度生态过程（如珊瑚和鱼类功能群）以及未来几十年洪水风险的预测。

The purpose of this JSPS fellowship was to promote a cutting-edge research focused on the elucidation of the spatio-temporal patterns of the resilience related to Japanese coral reefscapes in order to provide a decision support tool to stakeholders tasked with coastal management in an era of oceano-climatic change and anthropogenic pressure. The mapping of the spatio-temporal resilience of socio-ecology systems (SES) required to focus on a suite of 17 spatialized stress-inducing and stress-mitigating factors derived from freely available spaceborne and waterborne observations, model output, historical databases and census data. As for the spatio-temporal mapping of the SES resilience, Fuzzy logic was employed to associate environmental factors based on the related population and coral responses, as found in the literature. Once the factors were weighted according to their resilience contributions, temporally static patterns were evident: 1) a negative correlation occurs between ecological resilience and latitude; 2) the least resilient islands are low-lying, deprived of wide reef barriers, and located on the eastern and southern boundaries of the Nansei archipelago; 3) the southwesternmost, middle and northeasternmost islands have the same socio-ecological resilience; and 4) Sekisei Lagoon islands have a very high ecological resilience. To overcome uncertainty, future studies should focus on the socio-ecological adaptive capacity, fine-scale ecological processes (such as coral and fish functional groups) and the prediction of the flood risks in the coming decades.