Forest management under the risk associated with transgenic pollen dispersal -explore forest management decisions of GM trees plantation

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Planting genetically modified (GM) trees, which grow faster, may help counter global warming by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere at a higher rate or may help meet a growing demand of wood materials. However, dispersal of transgenic pollen, seed and gene immigration into natural and breeding populations may be deleterious from the point of view of the conservation of natural populations. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the potential impact of transgenic pollen and/or seed dispersal on natural populations before considering planting GM trees. Forest owners who consider planting GM trees need to evaluate benefits and costs associated with introduction of GM trees. There are studies that estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for GM plants from the demand sides (Lusk, J.L. et al., 2004; Huffman, W. E., et al., 2007). However, there are few studies examining land managers` management decision on GM plants or trees. In this study we explore land managers` management decision on planting GM trees considering the potential impact of transgenic pollen dispersal. Because of long-distance dispersal of pollens and/or seeds as well as long life cycle of trees, a spatial and temporal framework is necessary for analyzing the potential impact of transgenic pollen and/or seed dispersal on natural populations. Here, we develop a simple simulation model of transgenic pollen dispersal with a spatial framework and explore forest owner`s activities that includes planting GM trees and its impact on natural populations.