Early warning signals for predicting impending expansion of invading populations

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Invasive organisms can have significant impacts on ecosystems and human society. Some invasive species have latent periods of low densities before they start expansion. We developed a methodology to predict such species and their impending expansion. Allee effects are one of the mechanisms lowering the growth of low-density populations and thereby causing latent periods before the expansion of invading populations. We built a basic theoretical framework to (1) determine whether Allee effects are responsible for a latent period of an invading population, and to (2) construct an early warning signal for the acceleration of population spread during the latent period. In addition, we reported the current distribution of invasive golden mussel in Lake Kasumigaura.