REsolving Trophodynamik CoNsequences of Climate ChaNge (RECONN 1) - Simulating and Predicting Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Match-mismatch Effects on Key Trophic Players

解决气候变化的营养动力学后果（RECONN 1） - 模拟和预测海洋生态系统动力学以及对关键营养参与者的匹配不匹配影响

• 批准号: 5429968
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Myron Peck, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Section of Oceanography
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2003-12-31 至 2011-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/5429968?language=en
• 关键词: REsolving; Trophodynamik; CoNsequences; Climate; ChaNge

Resolving the effects of climatic processes on the dynamics of critical habitats (determined by their abiotic and biotic characteristics) is paramount to developing a capacity to predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and impacts upon the population dynamics of key species. In this program, the trophodynamic consequences of climate change (match mismatch) in the North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystems will be examined using time-series analyses incorporated within four linked model approaches. (1) A three dimensional Eulerian circulation model, HAMSOM (Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), (2) an embedded ecosystem model (ECOSMO), 3) a Lagrangian particle tracking population model for copepods and individual fish larvae (ECOSMO- IBM), and 4) a juvenile and adult fish bioenergetics model. Each of these approaches is based upon existing model frameworks that will be modified to better resolve shifts in the timing and magnitude of primary (five classes) and secondary production (stage-resolved) and how variations in lower trophic levels affects tertiary production. The target species at the tertiary level is a key pelagic fish species (sprat, Sprattus sprattus) important as a bottom-up control on the production of top predators as well as a top-down control, structuring lower trophic levels through grazing within these ecosystems. Small pelagic fish like sprat are one of the sensitive "bio-indicators" of climate change on regional and basin scales due to their short life spans, high intrinsic growth rates (r), and tight coupling to meso-scale physical processes linked to climate (typical "wasp-waste" response). Long-term data sets of phytoplankton (classes), zooplankton (species) and sprat (all life stages) within the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems will be used verify models, and simulate match-mismatch dynamics and consequences (scenario test) at a variety of temporal (months to decades) and spatial scales (meters to basin).

解决气候过程对关键生境动态的影响（由其非生物和生物特性决定），对于发展预测气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响和对关键物种种群动态的影响的能力至关重要。在这个程序中，在北海和波罗的海生态系统的气候变化（匹配不匹配）的营养动力学后果将使用时间序列分析纳入四个链接的模型方法进行检查。(1)三维欧拉环流模型，HAMSOM（汉堡陆架海洋模型），（2）嵌入式生态系统模型（ECOSMO），3）桡足类和个体鱼苗的拉格朗日粒子跟踪种群模型（ECOSMO- IBM），以及4）幼鱼和成鱼生物能量学模型。每一种方法都是基于现有的模型框架，这些框架将被修改，以更好地解决初级生产（五级）和二级生产（阶段解决）的时间和规模的变化，以及较低营养水平的变化如何影响三级生产。第三级的目标鱼种是一种关键的中上层鱼种（鲱鱼，Sprattus sprattus），它对顶层捕食者的生产起着自下而上的控制作用，也是自上而下的控制作用，通过在这些生态系统内放牧来构建较低的营养级。像西鲱这样的小型中上层鱼类是区域和流域尺度上气候变化的敏感“生物指标”之一，因为它们的寿命短，内在生长率（r）高，并且与气候相关的中尺度物理过程密切相关（典型的“黄蜂-废物”反应）。将利用波罗的海和北海生态系统内的浮游植物（类）、浮游动物（种）和幼鱼（所有生命阶段）的长期数据集来验证模型，并模拟各种时间尺度（数月至数十年）和空间尺度（米至流域）的匹配-不匹配动态和后果（情景测试）。