REsolving Trophodynamik CoNsequences of Climate ChaNge (RECONN 1) - Simulating and Predicting Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Match-mismatch Effects on Key Trophic Players

解决气候过程对关键生境动态的影响(由其非生物和生物特性决定)，对于发展预测气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响和对关键物种种群动态的影响的能力至关重要。在这项计划中，将使用纳入四种关联模型方法的时间序列分析来研究气候变化(匹配不匹配)在北海和波罗的海生态系统中的热带动力学后果。(1)三维欧拉环流模型，HAMSOM(汉堡陆架海洋模型)，(2)嵌入式生态系统模型(ECOSMO)，3)关于桡足类和个别鱼类幼体的拉格朗日粒子跟踪种群模型(ECOSMO-IBM)，以及4)幼鱼和成鱼生物能量学模型。这些方法中的每一种都以现有的模型框架为基础，将对这些框架进行修改，以更好地解决初级生产(五类)和次级生产(阶段分解)的时间和规模的变化，以及较低营养水平的变化如何影响第三级生产。第三级的目标物种是一种关键的中上层鱼类物种(幼鼠、斯普拉特斯)，重要的是自下而上地控制顶级捕食者的生产，以及自上而下的控制，通过在这些生态系统内放牧来构建较低的营养水平。小型中上层鱼类如幼鱼是区域和流域规模气候变化的敏感“生物指标”之一，因为它们的寿命短、固有增长率(R)高、与与气候有关的中尺度物理过程紧密耦合(典型的“黄蜂废物”反应)。将使用波罗的海和北海生态系统内浮游植物(类)、浮游动物(物种)和幼虫(所有生命阶段)的长期数据集来验证模型，并模拟各种时间(数月至数十年)和空间尺度(从流域到流域)的匹配-不匹配动态和后果(情景测试)。

Resolving the effects of climatic processes on the dynamics of critical habitats (determined by their abiotic and biotic characteristics) is paramount to developing a capacity to predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and impacts upon the population dynamics of key species. In this program, the trophodynamic consequences of climate change (match mismatch) in the North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystems will be examined using time-series analyses incorporated within four linked model approaches. (1) A three dimensional Eulerian circulation model, HAMSOM (Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), (2) an embedded ecosystem model (ECOSMO), 3) a Lagrangian particle tracking population model for copepods and individual fish larvae (ECOSMO- IBM), and 4) a juvenile and adult fish bioenergetics model. Each of these approaches is based upon existing model frameworks that will be modified to better resolve shifts in the timing and magnitude of primary (five classes) and secondary production (stage-resolved) and how variations in lower trophic levels affects tertiary production. The target species at the tertiary level is a key pelagic fish species (sprat, Sprattus sprattus) important as a bottom-up control on the production of top predators as well as a top-down control, structuring lower trophic levels through grazing within these ecosystems. Small pelagic fish like sprat are one of the sensitive "bio-indicators" of climate change on regional and basin scales due to their short life spans, high intrinsic growth rates (r), and tight coupling to meso-scale physical processes linked to climate (typical "wasp-waste" response). Long-term data sets of phytoplankton (classes), zooplankton (species) and sprat (all life stages) within the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems will be used verify models, and simulate match-mismatch dynamics and consequences (scenario test) at a variety of temporal (months to decades) and spatial scales (meters to basin).