REsolving Trophodynamik CoNsequences of Climate ChaNge (RECONN 1) - Simulating and Predicting Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Match-mismatch Effects on Key Trophic Players

解决气候过程对关键生境动态的影响（由其非生物和生物特征决定）对于发展预测气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响和对关键物种种群动态的影响的能力至关重要。在这个项目中，气候变化（匹配不匹配）在北海和波罗的海生态系统的滋养动力学后果将使用时间序列分析合并在四个相关的模型方法进行检查。(1)三维欧拉环流模型HAMSOM（汉堡陆架海洋模型），(2)嵌入式生态系统模型ECOSMO，(3)桡足类和鱼类个体幼虫的拉格朗日粒子跟踪种群模型ECOSMO- IBM，以及(4)幼鱼和成鱼生物能量学模型。每一种方法都基于现有的模型框架，这些模型框架将被修改，以更好地解决初级（五类）和次级生产（阶段解决）的时间和规模变化，以及较低营养水平的变化如何影响第三生产。第三层次的目标物种是一种重要的远洋鱼类（Sprattus Sprattus），它对上层捕食者的生产具有自下而上的控制作用，同时也具有自上而下的控制作用，通过放牧在这些生态系统中构建较低的营养水平。在区域和流域尺度上，小型中上层鱼类（如梭子鱼）由于其寿命短、内在增长率(r)高、与气候相关的中尺度物理过程紧密耦合（典型的“黄蜂-废物”响应），是气候变化的敏感“生物指标”之一。波罗的海和北海生态系统内浮游植物（类）、浮游动物（种）和鲱鱼（所有生命阶段）的长期数据集将用于验证模型，并在各种时间（数月至数十年）和空间尺度（米至盆地）上模拟匹配-不匹配动态和后果（情景测试）。

Resolving the effects of climatic processes on the dynamics of critical habitats (determined by their abiotic and biotic characteristics) is paramount to developing a capacity to predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and impacts upon the population dynamics of key species. In this program, the trophodynamic consequences of climate change (match mismatch) in the North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystems will be examined using time-series analyses incorporated within four linked model approaches. (1) A three dimensional Eulerian circulation model, HAMSOM (Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), (2) an embedded ecosystem model (ECOSMO), 3) a Lagrangian particle tracking population model for copepods and individual fish larvae (ECOSMO- IBM), and 4) a juvenile and adult fish bioenergetics model. Each of these approaches is based upon existing model frameworks that will be modified to better resolve shifts in the timing and magnitude of primary (five classes) and secondary production (stage-resolved) and how variations in lower trophic levels affects tertiary production. The target species at the tertiary level is a key pelagic fish species (sprat, Sprattus sprattus) important as a bottom-up control on the production of top predators as well as a top-down control, structuring lower trophic levels through grazing within these ecosystems. Small pelagic fish like sprat are one of the sensitive "bio-indicators" of climate change on regional and basin scales due to their short life spans, high intrinsic growth rates (r), and tight coupling to meso-scale physical processes linked to climate (typical "wasp-waste" response). Long-term data sets of phytoplankton (classes), zooplankton (species) and sprat (all life stages) within the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems will be used verify models, and simulate match-mismatch dynamics and consequences (scenario test) at a variety of temporal (months to decades) and spatial scales (meters to basin).