Consistent assessment of global green, blue and virtual water fluxes in the context of food production: regional stresses and worldwide teleconnections

粮食生产背景下全球绿水、蓝水和虚拟水通量的一致评估：区域压力和全球远程联系

• 批准号: 5436832
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Petra Döll
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Physische Geographie (IPG)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2004-12-31 至 2010-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/5436832?language=en
• 关键词: Consistent; assessment; global; green; blue

Global food production relies on both blue water (available in rivers, lakes and aquifers, and used e.g. for irrigation) and green water (soil water transpiring through plants). Conventional indicators of water stress, however, are based upon blue water only, despite the dominant role of green water in agriculture. These indicators also ignore the mitigation potential of virtual water (the amount of blue or green water transpired to produce a unit of crop yield) that is associated with international crop trade. The proposed project will derive for the first time a model-based, global yet geographically explicit assessment of green, blue and virtual water flows for the present and for scenarios of climate change and atmospheric CO2 enrichment. To achieve this project goal, we employ two macroscale hydrological process models-the well-established dynamic global vegetation and water balance model LPJ and the state-of-the-art global model of water availability and water use WaterGAP-, and compare their results to estimate model-specific uncertainties. New water stress indicators-which consistently account for the combination of blue, green and virtual water balances-are calculated and used to identify hotspot regions of water scarcity. In addition, effects of agricultural management practices on the diverse water flows are studied for selected regions.

全球粮食生产依赖于蓝水（河流、湖泊和蓄水层中的可用水，用于灌溉等）和绿色水（通过植物蒸腾的土壤水）。然而，尽管绿色水在农业中占主导地位，但传统的水资源紧张指标仅以蓝水为基础。这些指标还忽略了与国际作物贸易相关的虚拟水（单位作物产量所需的蓝水或绿色水的量）的缓解潜力。拟议的项目将首次得出一个基于模型的、全球性但地理上明确的绿色、蓝色和虚拟水流的评估，用于目前和气候变化和大气CO2富集的情景。为了实现这个项目的目标，我们采用两个大尺度水文过程模型，完善的动态全球植被和水平衡模型LPJ和国家的最先进的全球模型的水的可用性和水的利用WaterGAP，并比较他们的结果来估计模型特定的不确定性。新的水资源压力指标，始终占蓝色，绿色和虚拟水平衡的组合计算和用于确定缺水的热点地区。此外，农业管理措施对不同的水流的影响进行了研究，为选定的区域。