気候変動に伴う波浪および波エネルギーの将来変化予測

预测气候变化导致的波浪和波浪能的未来变化

• 批准号: 16F16377
• 负责人: 森 信人
• 金额: $ 0.9万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2016-11-07 至 2019-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16F16377/
• 关键词: wave climate; wave energy; wave modeling; 波浪; 地球温暖化; 影響評価; 沿岸災害; ペルシャ湾

In this project, we have produced the wave climate data for historical and future projections for 50 years (25 years in each of historical and future periods) in high accuracy as a reliable resource of wave climate dataset in data-scarce region, Indian Ocean. We used a super-resolution wind field of MRI-AGCM3.2S, a product of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), for the first time in the study area to inspect the climate change impact on various ocean phenomena. For this purpose, I provided the fellow with the research facilities from Coastal Engineering Lab, DPRI, Kyoto University for high speed numerical modeling as well as model’s input wind data, and scientific and technical support for performing the numerical model on our cluster. The modeling was performed and the wave characteristics was produced for the target 50 years, and the wave climate was assessed for historical and future projections in the whole domain and also in nearshore areas. The analysis was carried out for both mean and extreme values of the wind and wave parameters and in terms of monthly, seasonal and annual variations, and the results of historical and future projections were compared to investigate the impact of climate change. We suggested a novel index for considering both short and long-term variations in definition of climate stability and determining the most appropriate locations for wave energy extraction.

在本项目中，我们制作了高精度的50年历史和未来预测波浪气候数据（历史和未来各25年），作为数据稀缺地区波浪气候数据集的可靠资源。我们首次在研究区使用日本气象厅（JMA）产品MRI-AGCM3.2S超分辨率风场，考察了气候变化对各种海洋现象的影响。为此，我为该研究员提供了京都大学海岸工程实验室高速数值模拟的研究设备和模型输入的风数据，并为在我们集群上执行数值模型提供了科学技术支持。进行了模拟并生成了目标50年的波浪特征，并对整个区域和近岸地区的波浪气候进行了历史和未来预测。对风浪参数的平均值和极值以及月、季、年变化进行了分析，并对历史预测结果和未来预测结果进行了比较，探讨了气候变化的影响。我们提出了一种新的指数，用于考虑气候稳定性定义的短期和长期变化，并确定最合适的波浪能提取地点。

项目成果

Future projection of wave energy in Indian Ocean based on high resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S projection

基于高分辨率MRI-AGCM3.2S投影的印度洋波浪能未来预测

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Kamranzad;B.
• 通讯作者: B.

Regional Wave Climate Projection Based on Super-High-Resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S, Indian Ocean

基于超高分辨率MRI-AGCM3.2S的印度洋区域波浪气候预测

• DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.74.i_1351
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
• 作者: Kamranzad B;Mori N.
• 通讯作者: Mori N.

Performances of Long-Term Wave Hindcasts in the Northern Indian Ocean

北印度洋长期波浪后报的表现

• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: 土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)
• 作者: Kamranzad B;Mori N.;Bahareh KAMRANZAD・Nobuhito MORI・Tomoya SHIMURA
• 通讯作者: Bahareh KAMRANZAD・Nobuhito MORI・Tomoya SHIMURA

Swansea University(英国)

斯旺西大学（英国）