気候変動に伴う波浪および波エネルギーの将来変化予測

预测气候变化导致的波浪和波浪能的未来变化

• 批准号: 16F16377
• 负责人: 森 信人
• 金额: $ 0.9万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2016-11-07 至 2019-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16F16377/
• 关键词: wave climate; wave energy; wave modeling; 波浪; 地球温暖化; 影響評価; 沿岸災害; ペルシャ湾

In this project, we have produced the wave climate data for historical and future projections for 50 years (25 years in each of historical and future periods) in high accuracy as a reliable resource of wave climate dataset in data-scarce region, Indian Ocean. We used a super-resolution wind field of MRI-AGCM3.2S, a product of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), for the first time in the study area to inspect the climate change impact on various ocean phenomena. For this purpose, I provided the fellow with the research facilities from Coastal Engineering Lab, DPRI, Kyoto University for high speed numerical modeling as well as model’s input wind data, and scientific and technical support for performing the numerical model on our cluster. The modeling was performed and the wave characteristics was produced for the target 50 years, and the wave climate was assessed for historical and future projections in the whole domain and also in nearshore areas. The analysis was carried out for both mean and extreme values of the wind and wave parameters and in terms of monthly, seasonal and annual variations, and the results of historical and future projections were compared to investigate the impact of climate change. We suggested a novel index for considering both short and long-term variations in definition of climate stability and determining the most appropriate locations for wave energy extraction.

在这个项目中，我们已经产生了波浪气候数据的历史和未来的预测为50年（25年的历史和未来时期）在高精度作为一个可靠的资源，在数据稀缺的地区，印度洋的波浪气候数据集。利用日本气象厅（JMA）的MRI-AGCM 3.2S超分辨率风场，首次在研究海域考察了气候变化对各种海洋现象的影响。为此，我向该研究员提供了来自京都大学DPRI海岸工程实验室的研究设施，用于高速数值模拟以及模型的输入风数据，并为在我们的集群上执行数值模型提供了科学和技术支持。进行了建模，并产生了目标50年的波浪特征，并对整个域和近岸区域的历史和未来预测进行了波浪气候评估。对风和波浪参数的平均值和极值以及月、季和年变化进行了分析，并对历史和未来预测的结果进行了比较，以调查气候变化的影响。我们提出了一个新的指数，考虑短期和长期变化的气候稳定性的定义，并确定最合适的位置波能提取。

项目成果

Future projection of wave energy in Indian Ocean based on high resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S projection

基于高分辨率MRI-AGCM3.2S投影的印度洋波浪能未来预测

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Kamranzad;B.
• 通讯作者: B.

Regional Wave Climate Projection Based on Super-High-Resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S, Indian Ocean

基于超高分辨率MRI-AGCM3.2S的印度洋区域波浪气候预测

• DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.74.i_1351
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
• 作者: Kamranzad B;Mori N.
• 通讯作者: Mori N.

Performances of Long-Term Wave Hindcasts in the Northern Indian Ocean

北印度洋长期波浪后报的表现

• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: 土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)
• 作者: Kamranzad B;Mori N.;Bahareh KAMRANZAD・Nobuhito MORI・Tomoya SHIMURA
• 通讯作者: Bahareh KAMRANZAD・Nobuhito MORI・Tomoya SHIMURA

Swansea University(英国)

斯旺西大学（英国）